Time To Buy The Dip In e.l.f. Beauty Stock?
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) stock has fallen by 18.6% in less than a month, from $94.83 on 24th Feb, 2026 to $77.15 now. Should you buy this dip?
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, ELF stock passes basic quality checks. But the bad news is that historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was -14%, with median peak return of 33%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 20% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -0.3% |
| 3M | 4.4% |
| 6M | 4.2% |
| 12M | -14.2% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
ELF had 12 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
- 33% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 108 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -41% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | ELF Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | ELF | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -14% | 33% | -41% | 108 | ||||
| 11062025 | -41% | 2% | 1% | 24% | -11% | 110 | ||
| 8072025 | -20% | 4% | -23% | 47% | -32% | 42 | ||
| 1242025 | -21% | 1% | -23% | 33% | -55% | 237 | ||
| 8012024 | -22% | -1% | -34% | 12% | -70% | 7 | ||
| 4122024 | -22% | 1% | -68% | 34% | -69% | 76 | ||
| 9222023 | -21% | -3% | 6% | 107% | -12% | 279 | ||
| 3122020 | -24% | -24% | 139% | 140% | -32% | 364 | ||
| 12202018 | -36% | -10% | 86% | 118% | -14% | 327 | ||
| 10162018 | -21% | -3% | 66% | 70% | -33% | 342 | ||
| 6292018 | -24% | 0% | -6% | 10% | -52% | 10 | ||
| 1182018 | -22% | 6% | -54% | 17% | -57% | 36 | ||
| 8222017 | -24% | 1% | -38% | 21% | -49% | 105 | ||
e.l.f. Beauty Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 16.7% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 47.4% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 16.2% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 5.9 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 6.6 |
Not sure if you can take a call on ELF stock? Consider portfolio approach
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