Big Move for EL In a Month, but Do JNJ’s Margins and Growth Give It the Edge?
Why are we comparing? While generally different businesses, both EL and JNJ compete for skin care products, so why not look at the one that’s doing better?
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) shows positive revenue growth across all timeframes with 2.4% last quarter, 4.3% last twelve months, and 4.5% three-year average, while Estee Lauder (EL) exhibits negative growth in the same periods.
- JNJ maintains strong margins above 24%, significantly higher than EL’s margins near 9%.
- Additionally, JNJ trades at a lower valuation multiple of 17.1 compared to EL’s 24.6.
That is one way to look at stocks. Trefis High Quality Portfolio evaluates much more, and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure
Valuation & Performance Overview
| EL | JNJ | Preferred | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | |||
| P/EBIT Ratio | 24.6 | 17.1 | JNJ |
| Revenue Growth | |||
| Last Quarter | -9.9% | 2.4% | JNJ |
| Last 12 Months | -3.6% | 4.3% | JNJ |
| Last 3 Year Average | -1.3% | 4.5% | JNJ |
| Margins | |||
| Last 12 Months | 9.0% | 24.7% | JNJ |
| Last 3 Year Average | 9.8% | 26.1% | JNJ |
| Momentum | |||
| Last 3 Year Return | -61.3% | -2.3% | JNJ |
Historical Market Performance
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| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | Avg | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| EL Return | 30% | 40% | -32% | -40% | -48% | 24% | -55% | ||
| JNJ Return | 11% | 11% | 6% | -9% | -5% | 11% | 24% | ||
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 7% | 94% | <=== | |
| Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||||
| EL Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 33% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | ||
| JNJ Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 54% | ||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 50% | 61% | <=== | |
| Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||||
| EL Max Drawdown | -30% | -11% | -48% | -57% | -56% | -33% | -39% | ||
| JNJ Max Drawdown | -23% | -2% | -7% | -16% | -7% | -2% | -10% | <=== | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -12% | ||
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] 2025 data is for the year till date (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year