How Will Walt Disney Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. The company has $181 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $96 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $14 Bil in operating profits and net income of $12 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
No matter where DIS stock goes, your portfolio should stay on track. See how the Trefis High Quality Portfolio can help you do that.
- Buy or Sell Walt Disney Stock?
- Is Walt Disney Stock Built to Withstand More Downside?
- Walt Disney Stock Pulls Back to Support – Smart Entry?
- Walt Disney Stock Near Crucial Support – Buy Signal?
- Walt Disney Stock at Support Zone – Bargain or Trap?
- Pay Less, Gain More: DIS, NFLX Top Warner Music Stock
Walt Disney’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 5.6%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -5.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/2/2026 | -7.4% | -3.6% | -8.4% |
| 11/13/2025 | -7.7% | -10.3% | -4.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | -2.7% | -3.9% | 0.4% |
| 5/7/2025 | 10.8% | 20.8% | 22.1% |
| 2/5/2025 | -2.4% | -3.8% | -6.9% |
| 11/14/2024 | 6.2% | 11.2% | 10.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | -4.5% | -4.9% | -1.5% |
| 5/7/2024 | -9.5% | -9.1% | -12.9% |
| 2/7/2024 | 11.5% | 12.5% | 11.3% |
| 11/8/2023 | 6.9% | 11.2% | 10.2% |
| 8/9/2023 | 4.9% | -1.3% | -6.8% |
| 5/10/2023 | -8.7% | -8.3% | -9.1% |
| 2/8/2023 | -1.3% | -2.3% | -16.3% |
| 11/8/2022 | -13.2% | -4.4% | -7.4% |
| 8/10/2022 | 4.7% | 9.2% | 2.4% |
| 5/11/2022 | -0.9% | -0.9% | -5.5% |
| 2/9/2022 | 3.3% | 6.2% | -10.5% |
| 11/10/2021 | -7.1% | -9.8% | -12.5% |
| 8/12/2021 | 1.0% | -3.4% | 3.2% |
| 5/13/2021 | -2.6% | -3.9% | -0.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| # Negative | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 5.6% | 11.2% | 10.2% |
| Median Negative | -5.8% | -3.9% | -7.4% |
| Max Positive | 11.5% | 20.8% | 22.1% |
| Max Negative | -13.2% | -10.3% | -16.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 22.3% | 2.4% | 5.8% |
| 3Y History | 44.9% | 28.6% | 21.5% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Walt Disney stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Walt Disney. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| DIS Earnings Dates | DIS | NFLX | CMCSA |
| 2/2/2026 | -7.4% | -5.2% | 1.2% |
| 11/13/2025 | -7.7% | -7.0% | 2.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | -2.7% | -7.5% | -3.2% |
| 5/7/2025 | 10.8% | 18.7% | 3.6% |
| 2/5/2025 | -2.4% | N/A* | 2.1% |
| 11/14/2024 | 6.2% | 21.8% | -0.4% |
| 8/7/2024 | -4.5% | -4.9% | 0.0% |
| 5/7/2024 | -9.5% | -0.7% | 1.6% |
| 2/7/2024 | 11.5% | 13.6% | -5.3% |
| 11/8/2023 | 6.9% | 26.1% | 6.1% |
| 8/9/2023 | 4.9% | -10.2% | -0.2% |
| 5/10/2023 | -8.7% | 0.5% | -1.0% |
| 2/8/2023 | -1.3% | 16.2% | -4.1% |
| 11/8/2022 | -13.2% | 9.4% | -0.2% |
| 8/10/2022 | 4.7% | 21.1% | -1.1% |
| 5/11/2022 | -0.9% | -52.3% | -4.5% |
| 2/9/2022 | 3.3% | -18.8% | 3.7% |
| 11/10/2021 | -7.1% | 1.2% | 4.4% |
| 8/12/2021 | 1.0% | -3.8% | 1.6% |
| CORRELATION | 22.0% | -8.9% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after DIS
Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock such as DIS, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.