Between Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage and Dollar General, Which Stock Looks Set to Break Out?
Dollar General fell -10% during the past Week. You may be tempted to buy more, or may want to reduce your exposure. But there is an entirely different perspective you might be missing. Is there a better alternative? Turns out, its peer Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage gives you more. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) stock offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and relatively lower valuation vs Dollar General (DG) stock, suggesting you may be better off investing in NGVC
- NGVC’s Last 12 Months revenue growth was 5.2%, vs. DG’s 4.9%.
- In addition, its Last 3-Year Average revenue growth came in at 6.9%, ahead of DG’s 5.1%.
- NGVC’s LTM margin is higher: 4.8% vs. DG’s 4.5%.
These differences become even clearer when you look at the financials side by side. The table highlights how DG’s fundamentals stack up against those of NGVC on growth, margins, momentum, and valuation multiples.
Valuation & Performance Overview
| DG | NGVC | Preferred | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | |||
| P/EBIT Ratio | 15.2 | 9.3 | NGVC |
| Revenue Growth | |||
| Last Quarter | 4.6% | 1.6% | DG |
| Last 12 Months | 4.9% | 5.2% | NGVC |
| Last 3 Year Average | 5.1% | 6.9% | NGVC |
| Operating Margins | |||
| Last 12 Months | 4.5% | 4.8% | NGVC |
| Last 3 Year Average | 5.5% | 4.0% | DG |
| Momentum | |||
| Last 3 Year Return | -33.4% | 170.0% | NGVC |
Note: For “Last 3 Year Return” metric, preferred stock is one with higher returns unless the returns are too high (>300%) which creates risk of sell off.
See more revenue details: DG Revenue Comparison | NGVC Revenue Comparison
See more margin details: DG Operating Income Comparison | NGVC Operating Income Comparison
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See detailed fundamentals on Buy or Sell DG Stock. Below we compare market return and related metrics across years.
Historical Market Performance
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | Avg | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| DG Return | 13% | 6% | -44% | -43% | 80% | 2% | -31% | ||
| NGVC Return | 6% | -34% | 92% | 153% | -36% | 3% | 123% | <=== | |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -2% | 78% | ||
| Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||||
| DG Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 33% | 25% | 67% | 67% | 50% | ||
| NGVC Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 83% | 50% | 42% | 33% | 53% | ||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | 60% | <=== | |
| Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||||
| DG Max Drawdown | -15% | -20% | -58% | -45% | -9% | -1% | -25% | ||
| NGVC Max Drawdown | -26% | -35% | -7% | -9% | -37% | -5% | -20% | ||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | -8% | <=== | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/17/2026 (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
No matter how good the numbers, stock investment is never a smooth ride. There is a risk you must factor in. Read DG Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has fallen and recovered in the past.
Still not sure about DG or NGVC? Consider portfolio approach.
The Right Way To Invest Is Through Portfolios
Stocks can jump or crash but long term success comes from staying invested. The right portfolio helps you ride gains and cushion single stock drops.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? HQ Portfolio has posted more than 105% in cumulative return since inception, with less risk versus the benchmark index, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.