Guidance Raise And Momentum – Dell Stock Has Both
Dell Technologies (DELL) raised its revenue forecast for fiscal 2027 on September 1, 2026. The stock has gained 18.8% since the close before that release, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%. A raised forecast and a rising share price do not always arrive together. Dell has both. Here is what management raised, what the chart shows and what Dell still has to deliver in fiscal 2027.
The Guidance Raise At Dell
Management now expects fiscal 2027 revenue of $192 billion at the midpoint, up from $167 billion before. That is a 15% lift to the forecast for the same year. Dell has raised a forecast here, not reported a result.
Management pointed to servers. Dell now expects $74 billion of fiscal 2027 revenue from AI-optimized servers, up from $60 billion. That category is Dell’s own measure for the servers it builds for AI work. Management also expects sales of traditional servers to more than double.
The profit forecast moved up too. Management raised its fiscal 2027 guide for GAAP earnings per share by about 41%. Management did not lower any of its forecasts in the release.
Dell Stock Is In An Uptrend
Dell stock closed at $541.74 on October 1, 2026. That is above its 50-day average of $486.49. The 50-day average is the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
The 200-day average, the same measure over a longer stretch, is lower still at $290.47. A price above the shorter average, with that average above the longer one, is an uptrend. It describes what the price has done, not what it will do.
From the close before the release, the stock rose 7.9% in two sessions, while the S&P 500 fell 0.3%. That move reflected the whole release: the quarter’s results and the new guide together. Since then the stock has added another 10.1%, while the S&P 500 has been flat.
What Does Dell Still Have To Deliver?
Dell has to grow revenue 67.6% in the last two quarters of fiscal 2027 to reach the raised guide. That is measured against the same quarters a year earlier. Revenue grew 70.8% in the first two quarters, so Dell needs slightly less growth than it has already managed. For the fiscal third quarter, management guided to revenue of $49 billion at the midpoint.
AI servers are the business that could lift fiscal 2027 revenue above the guide. Dell ended the fiscal second quarter with a record $95 billion AI backlog. A backlog is orders Dell has not yet delivered.
Supply is the limit management named. It said on the fiscal second-quarter call that memory chips remain its main constraint.
Dell stock trades at 30.7 times earnings, against 21.4 for the S&P 500.
Dell has a raised forecast and a share price above both of its averages today. A third quarter above the $49 billion guide, or faster deliveries of AI servers, would show Dell ahead of the raised number. A close below the 50-day average would mean the uptrend is no longer intact. A third quarter below that guide would be the first sign that the full-year number is at risk.
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