The Dates That Matter Most For Amazon Stock
If you own Amazon stock, your worry is probably the bill for data centers and AI. On its July 30, 2026 call, management put Amazon’s capital spending for 2026 at about $220 billion. The stock has returned 13.1% over the past twelve months, less than the S&P 500’s 16.0%. Here are the events most likely to move Amazon stock over the next six months, starting with late October’s earnings reports.
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Peers Alphabet and Microsoft report results, a read on demand for AWS | expected on or around October 27, 2026 | Either way |
| Amazon reports third-quarter 2026 results, including AWS growth | expected on or around October 29, 2026 | Either way |
| Amazon’s fourth quarter, when it expects an outsized share of retail sales | the fourth quarter of 2026 | Either way |
| Amazon capital spending for 2026 exceeds $220 billion meaningfully | by the end of 2026 | Against the stock |
| AWS adds capacity for demand it cannot yet serve | through 2026, and management believes in 2027 too | In its favor |
AWS Growth In Amazon’s Third-Quarter Earnings
Amazon is expected to report third-quarter 2026 results on or around October 29, 2026. This report matters most because of Amazon Web Services, or AWS, its cloud computing business. AWS earned $16.6 billion of Amazon’s $27.5 billion in operating income in the second quarter of 2026.
On the July 30 call, management said AWS revenue grew 36.7% in the second quarter of 2026 from a year earlier. That was the fifth straight quarter of faster growth. The growth rate at AWS is the number to watch in the October report. A rate below 36.7% would end that run.
Amazon’s Raised Capital Spending Estimate
On the July 30 call, management raised its capital spending plan for 2026. The estimate went to about $220 billion from about $200 billion. Management said the higher cost of memory chips was the reason. The new estimate is more than a quarter of Amazon’s $775.7 billion in revenue over the past twelve months.
Management said that free cash flow will be under pressure while it spends heavily on data centers. Free cash flow is the cash left after capital spending. Watch the 2026 estimate in the October report. If management raises it above $220 billion, even less cash will be left after capital spending.
The Fourth Quarter For Amazon’s Retail Business
Amazon expects an outsized share of its retail sales in the fourth quarter, its latest quarterly filing says. North America, Amazon’s largest segment, brought in $426.3 billion in fiscal 2025, or 59% of revenue.
Transportation and labor costs are the open question. On the July 30 call, management said fuel inflation and limited driver capacity had raised transportation costs. In September 2026, Amazon raised minimum pay for full-time U.S. operations workers to $20 an hour.
Amazon forecast third-quarter operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion on its July call. If it gives a fourth-quarter forecast in October, watch the operating income range. A range below the third-quarter one would mean Amazon expects to earn less in its heaviest retail quarter.
How Large A Fall Should Amazon Holders Plan For?
Plan for a fall of about a fifth, the worst Amazon stock has had in the past year. The stock fell 21.7% from a closing high on November 3, 2025 to a closing low on February 13, 2026. A $10,000 holding at that high was worth about $7,830 at that low.
The stock has also swung quickly around earnings calls. It fell 9.7% in the two days around the February 5, 2026 call. It rose 19.8% in the two days around the July 30, 2026 call.
AWS growth has sped up for five straight quarters. The spending estimate has already been raised once. The report expected around October 29 is the next look at both. Before that report, the right size for you is an amount you could keep through another fall of about a fifth.
How To Act On AMZN?
Now you know AMZN better. And that’s our purpose: to make you informed before you invest your money. However, making a bet on a single stock carries its own risks.
There is a smarter choice. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has beaten the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking.
If you’d rather act on AMZN itself:
| Play Offense | Play Defense |
|---|---|
| Learn More About AMZN & Invest | Save Taxes On Capital Gain |
| Earn From AMZN Cash Secured Puts | Covered Call Against AMZN |