Deckers Outdoor Stock To $106?
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) stock has fallen by 22.1% in less than a month, from $103.80 on 10/2/2025 to $80.89 now. What comes next? As it turns out, we believe there is a good chance of a stock rebound considering history of recovery post-dips and our current Attractive opinion of the stock. Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, DECK stock passes basic quality checks. The stock has returned (median) 58% in one year, and 74% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. For quick background, DECK provides footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual and high-performance use, distributing through department stores, specialty retailers, and operating 140 global retail stores as of March 2021.
For details on stock fundamentals and assessment: Read Buy or Sell Deckers Outdoor Stock to see the full picture.
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach we take with the Trefis High Quality Portfolio. Trefis works with Empirical Asset Management — a Boston area wealth manager — whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has incorporated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients with higher returns while taking on lower levels of risk versus the benchmark index.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 6.3% |
| 3M | 3.8% |
| 6M | 32.5% |
| 12M | 58.1% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
DECK had 4 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 74% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 196 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -29% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | DECK Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | DECK | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 58% | 74% | -29% | 196 | ||||
| 2242025 | -32% | 1% | -40% | 3% | -40% | 2 | ||
| 3162020 | -42% | -25% | 204% | 208% | -18% | 364 | ||
| 10262012 | -40% | -3% | 128% | 137% | -3% | 364 | ||
| 3302012 | -30% | 4% | -12% | 10% | -55% | 27 | ||
Deckers Outdoor Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 16.3% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 16.5% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 21.0% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 354.5 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 537.2 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.