Is Now the Time to Buy Deckers Outdoor Stock?
Note: Deckers’ fiscal year ended on March 31.
Deckers Outdoor (NYSE: DECK) has taken a beating in 2025. The stock has dropped nearly 50% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has inched ahead with a slight gain. But don’t confuse the stock’s decline with a failing business. At around $104 per share, DECK appears attractive to long-term investors who can disregard the short-term noise and recognize the underlying value beneath the surface. See Buy or Sell Deckers Outdoor Stock?
We arrive at our conclusion by comparing the current valuation of DECK stock with its operating performance over the recent years, as well as its current and historical financial condition. Our analysis of Deckers Outdoor along key parameters of Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience shows that the company has a very strong operating performance and financial condition, as detailed below. However, for investors who seek lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
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Q4 Recap: Strong Brands, Cautious Guidance
Deckers delivered mixed fiscal Q4 results—beating earnings estimates but issuing cautious guidance that unsettled investors. Core brands HOKA and UGG drove growth, with HOKA up 10% in Q4 and 23.6% for the full year, and UGG rising 3.6% and 13.1%, respectively. Total Q4 revenue rose 6.5% to over $1 billion, while EPS climbed to $1.00 from $0.82. Amid inflation and tariff pressures, management withheld full-year guidance but forecast Q1 sales of $890–$910 million, up 8%–10% year-over-year. Despite macro headwinds, Deckers shows resilience with potential for stronger growth as conditions improve.
Valuation vs. Fundamentals
The stock’s current price doesn’t reflect its operational strength. DECK trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of around 17x—down from over 32 at the end of 2024 and well below the S&P 500’s current P/E of 26.
Think about it: Deckers generates over $1 billion in annual cash flow on a $16 billion market cap. That’s a 6% cash yield. Layer in a 16% revenue growth over the past year, and you’ve got a high-quality business trading at a bargain.
This Is Still a Growth Company
Over the past three years, revenue has grown at a blistering 16.4% annual rate—more than triple the S&P 500’s pace. Operating margins came in at a strong 24.9% over the last four quarters (up 210 basis points year-over-year), versus 13.2% for the S&P 500. Net income margins were even more impressive at 19.4%. This is a brand-driven company with pricing power, loyal customers, and tight cost control.
A Fortress Balance Sheet
Deckers’ balance sheet is rock solid. With only $276 million in debt and $2.2 billion in cash, this company is built to weather uncertainty. Its debt-to-equity ratio is a razor-thin 1.3%, compared to nearly 20% for the average S&P 500 company. Half of its assets are cash. That’s firepower when the market’s on sale.
It Bends, But Doesn’t Break
Deckers Outdoor has historically shown sharper declines than the S&P 500 during major market downturns but has demonstrated strong recovery capability. During the 2022 inflation shock, DECK fell 48%—nearly double the S&P 500’s drop—but rebounded within a year and hit new highs by early 2025. In the 2020 Covid crash, it plunged 55% yet recovered in under four months. During the 2008 financial crisis, DECK lost 77.1% but regained its peak by mid-2010. While volatile, DECK has proven resilient over time. Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash captures how key stocks fared during and after the last six market crashes.
Deckers Scores High Where It Counts
Let’s sum it up:
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Growth: Extremely Strong
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Profitability: Neutral
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Financial Strength: Extremely Strong
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Downturn Resilience: Neutral
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Overall: Very Strong
The market has yet to reflect this opportunity—that’s your edge. Deckers is a high-quality growth story facing short-term headwinds, but its fundamentals remain solid. The brands are strong, the balance sheet is robust, and the valuation is compelling.
That said, investing in a single stock can be risky. You could explore the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid- and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.
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