Can Delta Air Lines Stock Bounce Back From Recent Slide?

Delta Air Lines, Inc. stock (NYSE: DAL) is down 0.8% in the past two weeks (ten trading days), performing in line with the S&P 500 over this period. Additionally, if you look at the change over the last week (five trading days) and one month too, the stock has dropped roughly in line with the S&P 500. Delta’s most recent Q3 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $9.15 billion in Q3 ’21 to $13.98 billion in Q3 ’22. However, operating expenses rose at a faster rate, and operating income dropped from $2.21 billion to $1.46 billion over this period. Due to this, net income dropped and EPS came in lower at $1.09 in Q3 ’22, against $1.90 in Q3 ’21.

Now, is DAL stock set to continue its slide or could we expect a recovery? We believe that there is a strong 69% chance of a rise in DAL stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on DAL Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Delta Air Lines (DAL) Stock Return. 

Twenty-One Day: DAL -7.2%, vs. S&P500 -6.7%; Underperformed market

(18% likelihood event; 69% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• DAL stock lost 7.2% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 6.7%
• A change of -7.2% or more over twenty-one trading days is an 18% likelihood event, which has occurred 451 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 451 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 313 occasions
• This points to a 69% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: DAL -0.8%, vs. S&P500 -0.8%; Performed in line with market

(39% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• DAL stock lost a marginal 0.8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.8%
• A change of -0.8% or more over ten trading days is a 39% likelihood event, which has occurred 980 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
• Of these 980 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 548 occasions
• This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: DAL -1%, vs. S&P500 -0.7%; Underperformed market

(38% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next five days)

• DAL stock lost 1% over a five-day trading period ending 12/30/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down 0.7% over this period.
• A change of -1% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 38% likelihood event, which has occurred 947 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
• Of these 947 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 494 occasions
• This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/3/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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