How Much Upside Is Left In Chevron Stock?
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Investors holding Chevron (CVX) stock secured a 44.3% return in the year to November 5, 2026, outpacing the 9.9% return for the S&P 500. This leaves current holders with a large gain and means anyone who stayed on the sidelines missed out. Valuing the stock from here is more difficult, because Chevron’s revenue jumped over the past four quarters after falling in each of the two years before. So, from today’s price, how much could the stock still make you in three years?
What Chevron Stock Could Return Over Three Years
Under a simple scenario built from the company’s own figures, Chevron stock would be worth about 50.0% more three years after its November 5, 2026 close, before dividends. This scenario takes revenue over the past four quarters and grows it each year at 0.85 times its latest yearly pace, while keeping today’s P/E constant. The net margin three years out assumes 70% of today’s level plus 30% of its average at the twelve earlier quarter-ends. The table below places today’s figures alongside these outcomes.
| Today | In three years (scenario) | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $226 billion | $368 billion |
| Net margin | 11.9% | 11.0% |
| Earnings | $27.0 billion | $40.5 billion |
| P/E | 15.4 | 15.4 |
| Share price | $212.93 | $319.38 |
Higher revenue accounts for more than the whole gain, because the scenario’s slightly lower margin takes a portion of it back and the P/E adds nothing. Chevron earns this revenue across two businesses. The upstream division, which produces oil and gas, reported $88.4 billion of revenue in fiscal 2025. The downstream segment, which runs its refineries, reported $142 billion, with some sales between the two divisions counted in both.
What Has To Go Right In Chevron’s Business
For that gain to materialize, Chevron must keep revenue growing near the past year’s pace for three more years, and its two latest quarters ran well ahead of that rate. Revenue rose 35.4% from a year earlier in fiscal Q3 2026, following a 51.4% rise in fiscal Q2. The quarter before that grew 3.2%.
On the October 30 call, management said Chevron produced nearly 4 million barrels a day in the third quarter, set a quarterly natural gas record, and reached record U.S. crude throughput at its refineries.
Management offered no revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 alongside those results, but expects refining margins to stay elevated in the short term, with 10% of the world’s refining capacity offline. Chevron also expects to lose 175,000 to 225,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day of fourth-quarter upstream production to turnarounds and downtime.
How Chevron’s Upside Changes Under Other Assumptions
The table below changes one input at a time, either an assumption or the time span, while keeping the rest exactly as they are in the scenario.
| If instead | Upside |
|---|---|
| Nothing changes (the scenario) | 50.0% |
| Revenue growth of 15.6% a year instead of 17.6% | 42.5% |
| Net margin of 8.8% in year three instead of 11.0% | 20.1% |
| 5 years at the same assumptions instead of 3 | 107.6% |
Chevron’s margin currently starts from a high point. Its net margin over the past four quarters sat above its average for the twelve-month periods ending September 2023 through June 2026, and the scenario’s slightly lower margin offsets about a fifth of the projected gain. The scenario also holds the share count at today’s level. Yet Chevron’s diluted share count rose 4.6% from fiscal Q3 2023 to fiscal Q3 2026, so each share would receive less if that rise continued.
Owning Chevron stock for three years would return nothing, before dividends, if revenue growth slowed from the 20.8% seen across the four quarters to September 2026 down to 2.8% a year. The stock would also return nothing if the net margin fell to 7.3%, matching Chevron’s level over the twelve months to June 2025. The same holds true if the P/E fell to 10.3, a figure lower than at any quarter-end since December 2023.
Chevron is expected to report its fourth-quarter results in January 2027. At that time, revenue compared against the same quarter a year earlier will be the measure to watch.
Beyond CVX: A Systematic Way To Invest
Before you decide on CVX, consider a better choice. Since its September 2020 launch, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P MidCap and Russell 2000, without betting on one stock.
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