Can Carvana Stock Crash From Here?
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Carvana (CVNA) stock gained 11.9% in the month through November 3, 2026, while the S&P 500 lost 2.6%. The shares jumped 15.7% in a single session on October 29, a day after the online retailer reported a third quarter with record revenue. The business can look easy to own after a run like that, but the shares also have to hold up when the market turns. So how hard has Carvana stock fallen when markets sold off before?
How Far Has Carvana Stock Fallen In Past Sell-Offs?
During four of the last five market shocks, Carvana stock fell further than the S&P 500. In three of those periods, it lost more than 40%. The shares dropped 42% in the 2025 US tariff shock, compared with 19% for the S&P 500. The steepest fall came during the 2022 inflation shock and Fed tightening, when the stock lost 94% while the index shed 24%. A short shock in July and August 2024 provided the single exception, as Carvana fell 5.8% and the S&P 500 fell 7.8%.
These large swings are not confined to the past. Within the last year, the shares fell about 41% from their highest close on January 22, 2026, to their lowest on March 20. A crash is a pattern this stock has already experienced recently.
Carvana Is Growing Far Faster Than The S&P 500
In return for that risk, you get a business expanding several times faster than the broader S&P 500. Carvana’s revenue growth averaged 36.0% over the last three twelve-month periods, compared with 6.1% for the S&P 500 on the same measure.
The company maintained that pace through the third quarter. On the October 28 call, management said Carvana sold 217,385 retail units, a company record that was up 39% from a year earlier. Revenue reached $8.04 billion, up 42.4%. Management also pointed to its early work with Stellantis dealerships on new cars as a sign of what its platform can achieve.
Carvana also carries less debt relative to its market value than the broader S&P 500. The company’s total debt equals 10.9% of its market value, compared with 19.2% for the index. Management said net debt stood at 0.8 times adjusted EBITDA over the last twelve months, marking another company record.
What Are You Paying For Carvana’s Growth?
You pay a premium to the market on earnings. Carvana trades at 30.1 times its earnings over the last twelve months, against 22.8 for the S&P 500. A single quarter lifted those earnings: Carvana reported net income of $0.857 billion on operating income of $0.424 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The best case for owning the shares rests on management’s own goal of 3 million units a year, compared with a run rate of 870,000 today. Management pairs that goal with a 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, which it said maps to a 12.5% operating income margin. Carvana’s operating margin over the last twelve months was 8.7%. Buyers may be betting on the company closing that distance.
Interest rates are a clear risk, and one that showed up in Carvana’s third quarter. Management said one adjusted measure of profit per car fell by $299, mainly because the company gave customers lower interest rates relative to benchmark rates and because benchmark rates rose. Management also said supply chain limits affect how fast the company can grow, and Carvana is still investing in its reconditioning centers to produce more cars.
When the company reports in February 2027, the figure to watch is Carvana’s full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA. Management expects that result to land at the higher end of its $2.7 billion to $3.0 billion range. It made that forecast on the condition that the business environment remains stable.
Still Holding Carvana After The Drop?
Selling a fallen stock can still bring a tax bill if you bought long ago, and holding keeps the risk. A free 30-minute strategy review with our partner advisory firm covers a floor under a large position and a lower-tax unwind.
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.