With CommVault Systems Stock Down 16% In A Day, How Confident Are You?
CommVault Systems (CVLT) stock is down 16.3% in a day. Already own the stock or planning to buy? You might want to re-consider based on the valuation as the stock still looks expensive. Consider the following data:
- Size: CommVault Systems is a $6.4 Bil company with $996 Mil in revenue currently trading at $145.78.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 18.6% and operating margin of 8.9%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.0 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.27
- Valuation: CommVault Systems stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 84.4 and P/EBIT multiple of 78.8
- Has returned (median) 61.3% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See CVLT Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for CVLT, see Buy or Sell CVLT Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and CVLT drops another 20-30% to $102 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience. Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach. Strategic asset allocation and diversification help you stay invested. Did you know investors who panicked out of the S&P in 2020 lost significant upside that followed? Trefis High Quality Portfolio and Empirical Asset Management’s asset allocation approach are designed to reduce volatility so you can stay the course.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: CVLT provides data protection and information management software, integrated appliances, and related services for diverse business needs, supported by strategic partnerships with leading technology companies worldwide.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- CVLT stock fell 39.1% from a high of $83.87 on 3 September 2021 to $51.08 on 15 September 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 30 January 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $195.41 on 18 September 2025 , and currently trades at $145.78
| CVLT | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -39.1% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 502 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- CVLT stock fell 46.0% from a high of $51.55 on 12 February 2020 to $27.83 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 10 December 2020
| CVLT | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -46.0% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 267 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- CVLT stock fell 42.5% from a high of $71.80 on 13 June 2018 to $41.28 on 15 August 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 May 2021
| CVLT | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -42.5% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 648 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- CVLT stock fell 65.3% from a high of $22.87 on 6 November 2007 to $7.94 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 18 December 2009
| CVLT | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -65.3% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 393 days | 1480 days |
It is a good thing to keep in mind how low CVLT could go during a downturn. And you should also check how the stock fared when compared with the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.