CSX Earnings Ahead: What Past Reactions Say About The Stock
CSX (NASDAQ:CSX) is scheduled to report its earnings on Wednesday, October 21, 2026. The company has a market value of about $88.8 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $14.5 billion in revenue and $5.2 billion in operating profit, with net income of $3.2 billion.
Nobody knows how the market will take the numbers. What we can measure is how CSX stock has reacted to its past earnings releases, which is useful context for anyone trading around the event.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
CSX’s Historical Odds Of A Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 19 earnings releases in the last five years, with 14 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 74% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share rises to 82%, across 11 releases.
- The median of the 14 positive 1D returns is 2.1%, and the median of the 5 negative ones is -3.2%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 6.9% and -6.7%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/22/2026 | 5.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% |
| 4/22/2026 | 6.9% | 3.5% | 6.3% |
| 1/22/2026 | 2.4% | 5.8% | 17.3% |
| 10/16/2025 | 1.7% | -1.3% | -3.0% |
| 7/23/2025 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 2.6% |
| 4/16/2025 | 1.2% | 2.9% | 14.5% |
| 1/23/2025 | -2.9% | -2.4% | -5.5% |
| 10/16/2024 | -6.7% | -5.3% | 0.5% |
| 8/5/2024 | 2.6% | 1.5% | 6.0% |
| 4/17/2024 | 0.7% | -1.4% | -0.7% |
| 1/24/2024 | 1.8% | 3.8% | 11.5% |
| 10/19/2023 | 0.7% | -3.1% | 3.5% |
| 7/20/2023 | -3.7% | -2.0% | -8.4% |
| 4/20/2023 | 3.3% | -1.4% | 4.9% |
| 1/25/2023 | -2.9% | 1.7% | -1.0% |
| 10/20/2022 | 1.7% | 6.4% | 14.0% |
| 7/20/2022 | 4.2% | 7.1% | 15.5% |
| 4/20/2022 | 2.8% | -2.3% | -12.4% |
| 1/20/2022 | -3.2% | -4.8% | -1.6% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 14 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 3.2% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -2.3% | -3.0% |
| Max Positive | 6.9% | 7.1% | 17.3% |
| Max Negative | -6.7% | -5.3% | -12.4% |
Do Early Post-Earnings Moves Continue?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. The strongest relationship over five years is between the 5D and the following 21 days, at 0.51 across 19 releases: the early move has tended to continue in the same direction. That is a tendency, not a rule, and it can break on any given report.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | -0.40 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| 3 Years | -0.37 | -0.13 | 0.50 |
Do Peers That Report First Offer A Clue?
JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) usually reports a few days before CSX, and has already reported this season. The table compares JB Hunt’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with CSX’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The table leaves out CSX’s August 5, 2024 release, when JB Hunt reported 20 days earlier. Across the 18 releases shown, the correlation is 0.14; the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed CSX’s, and a negative value means it has tended to point the other way.
| CSX Earnings Date | CSX 1D | JBHT 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 7/22/2026 | 5.8% | 8.0% |
| 4/22/2026 | 6.9% | 6.3% |
| 1/22/2026 | 2.4% | -1.0% |
| 10/16/2025 | 1.7% | 22.1% |
| 7/23/2025 | 0.1% | 1.7% |
| 4/16/2025 | 1.2% | -7.7% |
| 1/23/2025 | -2.9% | -7.4% |
| 10/16/2024 | -6.7% | 3.1% |
| 4/17/2024 | 0.7% | -8.1% |
| 1/24/2024 | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| 10/19/2023 | 0.7% | -8.8% |
| 7/20/2023 | -3.7% | 3.8% |
| 4/20/2023 | 3.3% | -1.0% |
| 1/25/2023 | -2.9% | 5.0% |
| 10/20/2022 | 1.7% | 0.04% |
| 7/20/2022 | 4.2% | -0.8% |
| 4/20/2022 | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| 1/20/2022 | -3.2% | 0.1% |
| Correlation | – | 0.14 |
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