Will CSX Corporation Stock Continue To Rise?

by Trefis Team
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The stock price of CSX Corporation (NYSE: CSX) has seen a rise of over 8% over the last twenty-one trading days, and it is also up a good 38% over the last one year. The recent rise can be attributed to a wider rally in railroad stocks, following strong Q2 for all major companies, including CSX, Norfolk Southern, and Union Pacific. CSX’s revenue of $3.0 billion was better than our forecast of $2.9 billion. Similarly, its earnings of $0.40 per share was comfortably above our forecast of $0.36. The company also closed its acquisition of Quality Carriers in July of this year, and it is expected to add 6% to the company’s top-line this year, while it won’t impact the EPS, given the costs associated with this transaction. Overall, a rebound in the economic growth and intermodal gains due to continued driver shortage in the trucking industry has led to a bullish sentiment for railroad stocks, including CSX.

But now that CSX stock has moved 8% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of a rise in CSX stock over the next month. Out of 353 instances in the last ten years that CSX stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 20% or more, 208 of them resulted in CSX stock increasing over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 208 out of 353, or about a 59% chance of a rise in CSX stock over the coming month. See our analysis on CSX Corporation Stock Chances of A Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data

  • After moving 6.2% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 47% of the occasions.
  • After moving 6.4% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 48% of the occasions
  • After moving 7.9% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 59% of the occasions.

Predict average return on CSX Stock Return: AI Predicts CSX Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise

CSX (CSX) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: CSX highest at 6.2%; CNI lowest at -2.6%
  • Ten-Day Return: CSX highest at 6.4%; CNI lowest at -1.5%
  • Twenty-One Days Return: CSX highest at 7.9%; CNI lowest at 0.7%

While CSX stock may have more room for upside, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Canadian Pacific Railway vs. D R Horton.

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