What’s Next For Castle Biosciences Stock?

The stock price of Castle Biosciences (NASDAQ: CSTL), a skin cancer diagnostic company, has seen a fall of over 9% last month, while it is down 12% in a week. The recent fall can be attributed to its downbeat Q3 results. Castle Biosciences reported revenue of $23.5 million, slightly above the $23.0 million consensus estimate, but its loss per share of $0.47 was worse than the $0.41 average of analyst forecasts. That said, the company upheld its top-line guidance of $89-$93 million for the full-year 2021. Last month, the company announced the acquisition of Cernostics – a company specializing in spatial biology and AI-driven image analysis of tissue biopsies – for up to $80 million ($30 million upfront and $50 million in milestone payments). The acquisition is seen as a positive for Castle Biosciences, expanding its U.S. total available market by $1 billion. ^[1]

But now that CSTL stock has seen a fall of 9% over the last month or so, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a strong chance of a rise in CSTL stock over the next month. Out of 109 instances in the last two years that CSTL stock saw a twenty-one day fall of 9% or more, 84 of them resulted in CSTL stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 84 out of 109, or about a 77% chance of a rise in CSTL stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Castle Biosciences Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

So, if this follows historical performance, it is likely that CSTL stock will rise to higher levels going forward. Also, Castle Biosciences Stock Return summarizes CSTL stock performance and chances of its rise or decline, among other metrics that matter.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last two years data

• After moving -12% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 72% of the occasions.
• After moving -10% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 60% of the occasions
• After moving -9% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 77% of the occasions.

Castle Biosciences (CSTL) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

• Five-Day Return: ADUS highest at 13.2%; CSTL lowest at -12.0%
• Ten-Day Return: CYH highest at 41.0%; CSTL lowest at -10.3%
• Twenty-One Day Return: ADUS highest at 43.8%; HCSG lowest at -19.5%

1. Castle Biosciences Press Release, Oct 19, 2021 [↩]