How Will Cisco Systems Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. The company has $390 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $59 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $14 Bil in operating profits and net income of $11 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Cisco Systems’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 4.2%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -4.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/11/2026 | -12.3% | -8.2% | -8.4% |
| 11/12/2025 | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% |
| 8/13/2025 | -1.6% | -4.7% | -5.5% |
| 5/14/2025 | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% |
| 2/12/2025 | 2.1% | 3.4% | -3.2% |
| 11/13/2024 | -2.1% | -2.8% | -0.9% |
| 8/14/2024 | 6.8% | 11.0% | 9.6% |
| 5/15/2024 | -2.7% | -4.5% | -8.0% |
| 2/14/2024 | -2.4% | -3.4% | -2.7% |
| 11/15/2023 | -9.8% | -9.8% | -6.4% |
| 8/16/2023 | 3.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| 5/17/2023 | 1.2% | 1.6% | 9.3% |
| 2/15/2023 | 5.2% | 1.6% | 3.6% |
| 11/16/2022 | 5.0% | 9.4% | 7.7% |
| 8/17/2022 | 5.8% | 0.9% | -7.2% |
| 5/18/2022 | -13.7% | -9.0% | -10.3% |
| 2/16/2022 | 2.8% | 0.9% | 3.2% |
| 11/17/2021 | -5.5% | -2.1% | 6.5% |
| 8/18/2021 | 3.8% | 7.6% | 3.1% |
| 5/19/2021 | 0.7% | 0.8% | -0.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -4.6% | -5.9% |
| Max Positive | 6.8% | 11.0% | 9.6% |
| Max Negative | -13.7% | -9.8% | -10.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -47.0% | -41.9% | -21.1% |
| 3Y History | -27.2% | -11.5% | -15.0% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Cisco Systems stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Cisco Systems. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO Earnings Dates | CSCO | ANET | FTNT |
| 2/11/2026 | -12.3% | N/A* | 11.3% |
| 11/12/2025 | 4.6% | -12.1% | -4.5% |
| 8/13/2025 | -1.6% | 16.8% | -17.9% |
| 5/14/2025 | 4.8% | 8.2% | -3.3% |
| 2/12/2025 | 2.1% | N/A* | 2.8% |
| 11/13/2024 | -2.1% | -8.3% | 17.0% |
| 8/14/2024 | 6.8% | 12.0% | 30.4% |
| 5/15/2024 | -2.7% | 19.0% | -6.9% |
| 2/14/2024 | -2.4% | -5.4% | 5.0% |
| 11/15/2023 | -9.8% | 21.6% | -11.3% |
| 8/16/2023 | 3.3% | 16.9% | -23.2% |
| 5/17/2023 | 1.2% | -15.2% | 11.9% |
| 2/15/2023 | 5.2% | 4.1% | 16.8% |
| 11/16/2022 | 5.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% |
| 8/17/2022 | 5.8% | 10.1% | -17.4% |
| 5/18/2022 | -13.7% | -13.3% | -5.8% |
| 2/16/2022 | 2.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% |
| 11/17/2021 | -5.5% | 29.3% | 0.9% |
| 8/18/2021 | 3.8% | -4.0% | 6.8% |
| CORRELATION | -13.8% | 3.1% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after CSCO
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