What To Expect From Credit Suisse Stock Over The Next One Month?

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Credit Suisse stock (NYSE: CS) is down around 0.8% in just the last one week, underperforming the S&P 500 (up 2%). Further, if you look at the change over the last ten days, the stock has dropped by 2.7%. The recent fluctuation in the stock is due to the third-quarter results, which were released on 4th November. While the bank outperformed the consensus estimate for revenues and earnings in the third quarter of 2021, its profitability suffered due to a 564 million Swiss francs litigation charge. Notably, the expense was related to the settlement of corruption allegations in Mozambique and other legal matters. Further, the bank is expected to report negative net income in the fourth quarter due to an impairment charge of 1.6 billion Swiss francs relating to an old acquisition. Additionally, the firm has announced it will  scale down most of its investment bank (includes investment banking and sales & trading) operations from next year.

Now, is CS stock set to drop further or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 49% chance of a rise in Credit Suisse stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on  Credit Suisse Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about Credit Suisse’s business, see our analysis on Credit Suisse Revenues.

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Twenty-One Day: CS 0.5%, vs. S&P500 6.8%; Underperformed market

(50% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • Credit Suisse stock gained a meager 0.5% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 6.8%
  • A change of 0.5% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 50% likelihood event, which has occurred 1258 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 1258 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 619 occasions
  • This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: CS -2.7%, vs. S&P500 3.4%; Underperformed market

(30% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • Credit Suisse stock decreased 2.7% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.4%
  • A change of -2.7% or more over ten trading days is a 30% likelihood event, which has occurred 760 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 760 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 399 occasions
  • This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: CS -0.8%, vs. S&P500 2%; Underperformed market

(40% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next five days)

  • Credit Suisse stock decreased 0.8% over a five-day trading period ending 11/08/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 2%
  • A change of -0.8% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 40% likelihood event, which has occurred 997 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 997 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 485 occasions
  • This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

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