How Will CoreWeave Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) is set to report its earnings on Monday, November 10, 2025. The company has $52 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $3.5 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $222 Mil in operating profits and net income of $-1.0 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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CoreWeave’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 2 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 0 positive and 2 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 0.0% of the time.
- The percentage remains the same at 0.0% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 0 positive returns = null, and median of the 2 negative returns = -12%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2025 | -20.8% | -37.6% | -24.2% |
| 5/14/2025 | -2.5% | 59.2% | 118.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 59.2% | 118.2% | |
| Median Negative | -11.7% | -37.6% | -24.2% |
| Max Positive | 59.2% | 118.2% | |
| Max Negative | -20.8% | -37.6% | -24.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 3Y History | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
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