How Will CrowdStrike Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, December 2, 2025. The company has $125 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $4.3 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-379 Mil in operating losses and net income of $-297 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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CrowdStrike’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 9.3%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -5.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/27/2025 | 4.6% | -2.4% | 13.9% |
| 6/3/2025 | -5.8% | -4.3% | 3.4% |
| 3/4/2025 | -6.3% | -15.5% | -4.8% |
| 11/26/2024 | -4.6% | -0.0% | -2.6% |
| 8/28/2024 | 2.8% | -2.9% | 8.2% |
| 6/4/2024 | 12.0% | 25.9% | 27.5% |
| 3/5/2024 | 10.8% | 10.7% | 3.9% |
| 11/28/2023 | 10.4% | 12.5% | 20.6% |
| 8/30/2023 | 9.3% | 11.7% | 12.2% |
| 5/31/2023 | -1.6% | -6.8% | -8.3% |
| 3/7/2023 | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% |
| 11/29/2022 | -14.7% | -17.5% | -24.2% |
| 8/30/2022 | -5.5% | -11.0% | -14.3% |
| 6/2/2022 | -6.8% | -0.3% | 7.5% |
| 3/9/2022 | 12.5% | 11.7% | 27.8% |
| 12/1/2021 | 3.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| 8/31/2021 | -3.9% | -5.6% | -12.5% |
| 6/3/2021 | -4.2% | 5.8% | 16.9% |
| 3/16/2021 | 6.0% | -2.9% | 8.6% |
| 12/2/2020 | 13.6% | 17.2% | 41.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 14 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 9.3% | 11.7% | 10.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.5% | -4.3% | -10.4% |
| Max Positive | 13.6% | 25.9% | 41.3% |
| Max Negative | -14.7% | -17.5% | -24.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 26.3% | 41.0% | 27.6% |
| 3Y History | 39.1% | 55.8% | -5.7% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of CrowdStrike stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before CrowdStrike. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWD Earnings Dates | CRWD | PANW | FTNT | ZS |
| 8/27/2025 | 4.6% | 6.5% | -19.1% | N/A* |
| 6/3/2025 | -5.8% | 1.4% | -3.6% | 17.5% |
| 3/4/2025 | -6.3% | -8.7% | 1.7% | N/A* |
| 11/26/2024 | -4.6% | 0.9% | 15.2% | N/A* |
| 8/28/2024 | 2.8% | 2.1% | 35.5% | N/A* |
| 6/4/2024 | 12.0% | -10.4% | N/A* | 8.0% |
| 3/5/2024 | 10.8% | -20.5% | 2.3% | -14.7% |
| 11/28/2023 | 10.4% | 8.5% | -8.3% | 1.0% |
| 8/30/2023 | 9.3% | 13.5% | -19.2% | N/A* |
| 5/31/2023 | -1.6% | 12.5% | 11.7% | N/A* |
| 3/7/2023 | 3.2% | 12.2% | 12.3% | -12.1% |
| 11/29/2022 | -14.7% | 8.9% | -3.1% | N/A* |
| 8/30/2022 | -5.5% | 10.2% | -22.0% | N/A* |
| 6/2/2022 | -6.8% | 18.6% | 5.5% | 13.2% |
| 3/9/2022 | 12.5% | 16.7% | N/A* | -19.4% |
| 12/1/2021 | 3.9% | 1.6% | -9.8% | -8.3% |
| 8/31/2021 | -3.9% | 23.7% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 6/3/2021 | -4.2% | 2.5% | N/A* | 6.7% |
| 3/16/2021 | 6.0% | -11.5% | N/A* | -7.0% |
| CORRELATION | -49.5% | 4.4% | -71.3% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after CRWD
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