Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX), a company designing, manufacturing, and marketing footwear for men, women, and children under the Crocs brand, has declined 21% over the last five trading days (one week) and currently stands near $107. It should be noted that the broader S&P500 returned a 5% decline during the same period. The stock fell sharply despite posting a strong guidance update. Some investors speculated that Crocs overpaid for the acquisition of casual footwear brand Hey Dude for $2.5 billion – funded by $2 billion in cash and $450 million in the company’s shares. The uncertainty related to the Omicron variant and the ongoing supply chain issues also likely impacted the company’s stock negatively during this period. However, we believe that the addition of Hey Dude shoes will bring much-needed diversity to the company’s sales, which are dominated by the popular foam clogs (82% of total revenues in recent Q3). As people spent more time at home, Crocs’ flagship product saw a heightened demand during the pandemic.
For Q4, Crocs guides for revenue growth of approximately 42% and a non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 28%. Crocs expects record 2021 revenue with approximately 67% growth compared to a year ago vs. a prior expectation for +62% to +65%. CROX also continues to expect to achieve $5 billion in revenue by 2026, even before any Hey Dude revenues. The retailer has now completed three consecutive years of double-digit revenue growth, and it’s targeting sales to grow by at least 20% in 2022. The full-year 2022 pro forma revenue for Hey Dude is seen being approximately $700 million to $750 million.
Now, is CROX stock poised to decline further in the short term? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 59% chance of a rise in CROX stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Crocs Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.
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If you are considering CROX stock as an investment option over a longer time frame, you can explore our forecast for CROX’s Revenues dashboard.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using last 10 year data
 Returns of -21% or lower over five-day period in 26 times out of 2516 (1%); Stock rose in the next five days in 13 of these 26 instances (50%)
 Returns of -15% or lower over ten-day period in 103 times out of 2516 (4%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 47 of these 103 instances (46%)
 Returns of -19% or lower over twenty-one-day period in 131 times out of 2514 (5%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 77 of these 131 instances (59%)
Also, Crocs Peer Comparisons summarizes how the company fares against peers on metrics that matter.
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|S&P 500 Return||-5%||-5%||102%|
|Trefis MS Portfolio Return||-10%||-10%||255%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/21/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016