How Will Salesforce Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. The company has $181 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $43 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $9.4 billion in operating profits and net income of $8.0 billion. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade after the initial post-earnings reaction.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Salesforce’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
- The percentage remains the same at 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 3.8%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -4.4%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 5/27/2026 | -0.8% | 7.4% | -10.6% |
| 2/25/2026 | 4.0% | 0.7% | -3.2% |
| 12/3/2025 | 3.7% | 10.7% | 10.3% |
| 9/3/2025 | -4.9% | -5.4% | -6.7% |
| 5/28/2025 | -3.3% | -4.7% | -0.8% |
| 2/26/2025 | -4.0% | -5.0% | -9.6% |
| 12/3/2024 | 11.0% | 5.2% | 0.6% |
| 8/28/2024 | -0.7% | -4.9% | 7.0% |
| 5/29/2024 | -19.7% | -12.9% | -5.3% |
| 2/28/2024 | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| 11/29/2023 | 9.4% | 8.2% | 14.2% |
| 8/30/2023 | 3.0% | 3.5% | -5.7% |
| 5/31/2023 | -4.7% | -7.9% | -5.4% |
| 3/1/2023 | 11.5% | 9.3% | 17.5% |
| 11/30/2022 | -8.3% | -18.6% | -17.3% |
| 8/24/2022 | -3.4% | -13.3% | -18.3% |
| 5/31/2022 | 9.9% | 16.8% | 3.0% |
| 3/1/2022 | 0.7% | -8.0% | 2.9% |
| 11/30/2021 | -11.7% | -6.3% | -10.4% |
| 8/25/2021 | 2.7% | 2.9% | 9.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -7.1% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 11.5% | 16.8% | 17.5% |
| Max Negative | -19.7% | -18.6% | -18.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, 5D_21D shows the strongest 5-year correlation here, and it is negative: if the 5D post-earnings return is positive, a trader can position themselves in the opposite direction over the following 21D window. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that these correlations are between subsequent windows, not the cumulative columns above: 1D_5D is the correlation between the 1D post-earnings return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 5, 1D_21D is between the 1D return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 21, and 5D_21D is between the 5D return and the subsequent return from day 5 through day 21.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -17.4% | -24.0% | -31.7% |
| 3Y History | -57.7% | -58.0% | -44.5% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. Some of that pricing-in may even begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Salesforce stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Salesforce. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| CRM Earnings Dates | CRM | MSFT | HUBS |
| 5/27/2026 | -0.8% | -3.9% | -19.0% |
| 2/25/2026 | 4.0% | -10.0% | 9.4% |
| 12/3/2025 | 3.7% | N/A* | -15.0% |
| 9/3/2025 | -4.9% | N/A* | -6.2% |
| 5/28/2025 | -3.3% | 7.6% | -8.7% |
| 2/26/2025 | -4.0% | -6.2% | 4.4% |
| 12/3/2024 | 11.0% | N/A* | 7.8% |
| 8/28/2024 | -0.7% | -1.1% | 3.4% |
| 5/29/2024 | -19.7% | N/A* | -0.5% |
| 2/28/2024 | 3.0% | -2.7% | -3.3% |
| 11/29/2023 | 9.4% | N/A* | -6.1% |
| 8/30/2023 | 3.0% | N/A* | -11.4% |
| 5/31/2023 | -4.7% | N/A* | 7.4% |
| 3/1/2023 | 11.5% | N/A* | 11.8% |
| 11/30/2022 | -8.3% | N/A* | 5.7% |
| 8/24/2022 | -3.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% |
| 5/31/2022 | 9.9% | N/A* | 4.4% |
| 3/1/2022 | 0.7% | N/A* | 2.0% |
| 11/30/2021 | -11.7% | N/A* | 5.5% |
| 8/25/2021 | 2.7% | -0.1% | 11.9% |
| CORRELATION | -52.6% | 6.2% | |
* N/A indicates no comparable post-earnings session for that peer in that quarter
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