How Will Corebridge Financial Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Corebridge Financial (NYSE:CRBG) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The company has $14 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $18 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-541 Mil in operating losses and net income of $-366 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Corebridge Financial’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 14 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 64% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 1.0%, and median of the 5 negative returns = -2.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/9/2026 | 0.8% | -0.9% | -23.9% |
| 11/3/2025 | 1.0% | -2.6% | -2.2% |
| 8/4/2025 | -1.4% | -4.2% | -1.3% |
| 5/5/2025 | 2.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 2/12/2025 | -2.3% | 2.2% | -3.0% |
| 11/4/2024 | -4.9% | -1.8% | 2.8% |
| 7/31/2024 | -6.2% | -15.3% | -2.2% |
| 5/3/2024 | 2.0% | 7.6% | 4.6% |
| 2/15/2024 | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.4% |
| 11/3/2023 | -2.9% | -8.0% | 0.5% |
| 8/4/2023 | 0.1% | -6.9% | -7.3% |
| 5/4/2023 | 8.1% | 8.8% | 14.9% |
| 2/17/2023 | 0.6% | -1.8% | -22.6% |
| 11/9/2022 | 0.9% | 2.4% | -7.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 6 | 6 |
| # Negative | 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 1.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -3.4% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 8.1% | 8.8% | 14.9% |
| Max Negative | -6.2% | -15.3% | -23.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 16.4% | -18.9% | -21.4% |
| 3Y History | 16.9% | -17.4% | -27.4% |
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