How Will Copart Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Copart (NASDAQ:CPRT) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, November 20, 2025. The company has $40 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $4.6 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.7 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.6 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Copart’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 39% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 40% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 7 positive returns = 2.6%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -1.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/4/2025 | -2.8% | -2.1% | -9.7% |
| 5/22/2025 | -11.5% | -15.1% | -19.8% |
| 2/20/2025 | -2.8% | -5.1% | -7.9% |
| 11/21/2024 | 10.2% | 11.4% | 2.6% |
| 9/4/2024 | -6.7% | -6.9% | -1.6% |
| 5/16/2024 | -0.1% | -1.9% | -0.4% |
| 2/22/2024 | 4.0% | 7.6% | 16.2% |
| 9/14/2023 | -2.2% | -3.8% | 2.0% |
| 5/17/2023 | 7.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% |
| 2/21/2023 | 0.9% | 2.3% | 4.0% |
| 11/17/2022 | 0.4% | 1.5% | -6.0% |
| 9/7/2022 | -1.6% | -6.8% | -4.6% |
| 5/19/2022 | 1.1% | 3.2% | -4.5% |
| 2/16/2022 | -1.6% | -4.2% | 1.9% |
| 11/17/2021 | -0.9% | -5.5% | -8.9% |
| 9/8/2021 | -1.8% | 3.0% | -2.6% |
| 5/19/2021 | 2.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% |
| 2/18/2021 | -1.4% | -10.0% | -10.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -5.3% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 11.4% | 16.2% |
| Max Negative | -11.5% | -15.1% | -19.8% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 31.3% | 19.3% | -8.6% |
| 3Y History | 49.8% | 18.2% | -4.6% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Copart stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Copart. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPRT Earnings Dates | CPRT | ORLY | CVNA | LAD |
| 5/22/2025 | -11.5% | -1.1% | 16.6% | 10.7% |
| 2/20/2025 | -2.8% | -2.7% | -12.1% | -6.5% |
| 11/21/2024 | 10.2% | 0.5% | 19.8% | 14.2% |
| 5/16/2024 | -0.1% | -7.9% | N/A* | 8.5% |
| 2/22/2024 | 4.0% | -1.1% | N/A* | -5.9% |
| 5/17/2023 | 7.8% | 5.1% | 63.9% | N/A* |
| 2/21/2023 | 0.9% | 9.2% | N/A* | -3.7% |
| 11/17/2022 | 0.4% | 6.8% | -42.0% | 21.3% |
| 5/19/2022 | 1.1% | -15.7% | N/A* | -7.5% |
| 2/16/2022 | -1.6% | 6.0% | N/A* | 2.4% |
| 11/17/2021 | -0.9% | -1.5% | -2.8% | -12.4% |
| 5/19/2021 | 2.6% | 2.6% | -13.4% | -14.1% |
| 2/18/2021 | -1.4% | 0.4% | N/A* | 9.5% |
| CORRELATION | 16.4% | 30.1% | 25.9% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after CPRT
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