What Should Costco Stock Holders Take From Its Fiscal Fourth Quarter?

Costco Wholesale (COST) stock rose 2.9% in the first session after its Q4 FY2026 report. The shares trade at 46.4 times earnings, more than twice the S&P 500’s 21.9, so holders are counting on growth that keeps coming. What should a Costco holder take from a quarter that beat estimates and lifted the stock, yet left questions about whether its price cuts are driving more sales?

Costco Beat Estimates, And Its Core Sales Held Up

Holders should take away that Costco’s core sales held up, and the headline figures came in ahead of forecasts. Revenue was $95.72 billion, ahead of the roughly $94.8–95.0 billion consensus. EPS was $6.75, including a $0.15 tariff refund benefit. Excluding it, EPS was $6.60, still above the roughly $6.48–6.55 consensus.

The stock outpaced the market, while the S&P 500 gained 0.5% over the same session. Walmart and Target each gained less than 1%. The beat helps explain the rise, and the results also show solid demand once gas prices are set aside.

Comparable sales, a like-for-like measure of sales at existing warehouses, rose 9.4% in the quarter. Adjusted for gas prices and currency, they rose 6.7%. Management said higher gas prices added nearly 3% to sales. Traffic, meaning how often members shopped, rose 3.3%. Costco also received money from tariff refunds in the quarter.

Where Is Costco’s Tariff Refund Money Going?

Most of it is going back to members as lower prices. Costco received $184 million in tariff refunds in Q4 FY2026. In the second half of the quarter, it cut prices on items such as produce, meat, beverages, and hardware. Costco has already received a similar amount in Q1 FY2027, management said. Costco intends to reinvest most of that money too.

Costco’s reported gross margin rate was 11 basis points (hundredths of a percentage point) lower than a year earlier. Excluding gas inflation, it was 20 basis points higher. Excluding the refunds and the price cuts, core margins were 18 basis points higher. Management credited supply chain savings for that gain.

On the Q4 FY2026 call, management was asked why monthly sales had not clearly picked up since the price cuts. Management answered that sales outside gas remain very robust. It described the cuts as a way to give the refund money back to members. Management gave no figure for extra spending from the price cuts, though CEO Ron Vachris said unit growth had responded well. Costco’s September sales will be the next sign.

Costco Reports September Sales On October 7

Costco will report September sales on Wednesday, October 7, after the market closes. The figures cover the five weeks ending October 4. The number that matters is comparable sales adjusted for gas and currency, set against the 6.7% of Q4 FY2026.

A pace at or above 6.7% would show Costco holding its growth while it spends refund money on lower prices. Holders paying 46.4 times earnings are counting on that kind of steady growth. A slower pace would leave that growth in question while Costco keeps handing refund money back to members.

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