What’s Happening With Crypto Stocks?
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Part of our midterms guide. Start here: what the vote really changes for your money.
Betting markets give Democrats about a 94% chance of winning the House on Tuesday, and about seven in ten of taking the Senate too. The easy story: crypto loses its friends in Congress, and crypto stocks fall. The numbers tell a different story. Here’s where the biggest names stand going in.
| Asset | Market value | Last 12 months | Below its 52-week high |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | about $77,200 a coin | about −30% | about −30% |
| Ether | about $2,250 a coin | about −40% | n/a |
| Robinhood (HOOD) | $76B | −38% | −42% |
| Strategy (MSTR) | $55B | −49% | −52% |
| Coinbase (COIN) | $38B | −56% | −58% |
| Circle (CRCL) | $18B | −41% | −45% |
Crypto stocks didn’t wait for the election. They’ve already fallen 40% to 60%.
Together, the nine listed crypto names we track are worth about $217 billion. Every one of them trades at least 42% below its 52-week high. That’s not a poll. That’s Bitcoin.
See more lines: the miners and the treasury companies
Bitmine (BMNR), the Ether treasury company: about $11.7B, −55% over 12 months. Galaxy Digital (GLXY): $6.3B (counting all share classes), −53%. Bitcoin miners: Riot (RIOT) $4.8B, −39% and 55% below its high; Core Scientific (CORZ) $4.3B, −36% and 55% below; MARA (MARA) $2.6B, −62% (all measured, Trefis market data, last close). The miners that held up best are the ones selling power and space to AI data centers, not the ones that only mine. The $217B total is our sum of the nine market caps (COIN, MSTR, HOOD, CRCL, MARA, RIOT, CORZ, GLXY, BMNR); Strategy, Riot, Bitmine and Galaxy use their latest filed share counts.
Didn’t Crypto Need This Congress?
It did, and Congress already said no. The CLARITY Act, the bill that would set the rules for crypto trading, passed the House 294 to 134 in July 2025. On September 15 this year, it failed a key Senate vote 49 to 50, short of the 60 it needed. Republicans ran the Senate at the time. Every Democrat present voted no, and some Republicans joined them. The sticking point was ethics: Democrats wanted rules on elected officials’ ties to crypto, aimed at the president’s family’s crypto ventures. So the bill isn’t at risk on Tuesday. It’s already stalled.
What Doesn’t Need Congress At All?
Most of what changed for crypto since 2025. The SEC dropped its enforcement-first approach and has been writing friendlier rules on its own. The SEC and CFTC put out joint guidance in March on which tokens count as commodities. And the stablecoin law, the GENIUS Act, is already law; regulators are finalizing the rules now, and it takes full effect in January 2027. A Democratic Congress can’t repeal any of this past a veto.
So What Does A Democratic House Change?
Two things. First, investigations. Democrats have said they’ll probe the Trump family’s crypto businesses, including World Liberty Financial, if they win. That means hearings and headlines, and possibly pressure on regulators. Second, the terms of any 2027 crypto bill. A rules bill can still pass, but on Democratic terms, with the ethics language it failed without. That could be slower, not fatal.
The industry has hedged its bets. Fairshake, the crypto super PAC, had about $193 million on hand in January and has backed candidates in both parties. Crypto isn’t a one-party issue anymore.
Here’s the catch with crypto: it can fall by half without any help from Washington, as it has this year. For families with $1 million or more, the question isn’t who wins Congress. It’s how much of your wealth moves with Bitcoin. A Trefis partner firm can help you check yours.
Then Why Are The Stocks Down So Much?
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Bitcoin peaked in October 2025, about 18 months after its April 2024 halving, the same rhythm as past cycles. Midterm years have been rough for it: by one analyst’s count, Bitcoin fell about 65%, 52% and 27% after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms. Those are cycle years that happen to land on midterms, not election effects. Crypto stocks are leveraged bets on the same cycle. Trading volume falls, and so do the fees: Coinbase’s trading revenue fell 44% from a year ago last quarter, and Robinhood’s crypto revenue fell about 55%.
How Has This Ended Before?
In the year after each of the last three midterms, Bitcoin rose: more than 25% in 2015, about 90% in 2019 and 155% in 2023. Three cases is not a law. But it’s the same lesson as the stock market’s post-midterm streak: the cycle mattered, the vote didn’t. If that pattern holds, the stocks in our table have more riding on Bitcoin’s next year than on Tuesday night.
The vote isn’t crypto’s biggest risk. Bitcoin is. The market-rules bill already stalled under Republicans, and the friendlier SEC and the stablecoin law don’t need Congress. A Democratic House brings investigations and slower, stricter rules. The stocks will follow Bitcoin’s cycle.
One name in depth: Strategy.
Is Crypto A Bigger Share Of Your Wealth Than You Think?
Elections change the odds, not your plan. If you have $1 million or more invested, see what Tuesday means for your portfolio in a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner – an expert financial advisor.
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