How Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock Gained 30%
Between mid-November 2025 and early February 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)’s stock soared 33%, fueled less by earnings or margins and more by a surge in its P/E multiple. Behind this leap lie a mix of cautious forecasts, strategic buybacks, and bold growth plans that reshaped investor sentiment in just under three months.
Below is an analytical breakdown of stock movement into key contributing metrics.
| 11112025 | 2092026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.8 | 39.6 | 32.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,787.4 | 11,925.6 | 1.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.0% | 12.9% | -1.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.9 | 33.9 | 30.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,335.0 | 1,314.9 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.8% |
So what is happening here? The stock jumped 33%, driven mostly by a 31% boost in its P/E multiple, while revenue ticked up 1.2% and net margin dipped 1.2%. Let’s dig into what’s behind these shifts.
Here Is Why Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock Moved
- Pay Less, Gain More: CMG, YUM Top Starbucks Stock
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- Stronger Bet Than Starbucks Stock: CMG, YUM Deliver More
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- Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock at Support Zone – Bargain or Trap?
- Q3 2025 Earnings Impact: Weak comparable sales growth (0.3%) & cut FY guidance led to significant stock decline.
- Q4 2025 Comp Sales Drop: Comparable restaurant sales decreased 2.5% in Q4 2025, driven by lower transactions.
- Conservative 2026 Outlook: Flat comparable sales guidance for 2026 raised investor concern & prompted price target cuts.
- Share Buybacks: Chipotle repurchased $741.6M in Q4 2025, totaling $2.4B in 2025, supporting the stock.
- Growth Strategy Launch: “Recipe for Growth” strategy, record 334 new units in 2025, and global expansion plans.
Our Current Assesment Of CMG Stock
Opinion: We currently find CMG stock unattractive. Why so? Have a look at the full story. Read Buy or Sell CMG Stock to see what drives our current opinion.
Risk: A solid way to gauge risk is to check how much Chipotle (CMG) has fallen during major market downturns. It plunged about 75% in the Global Financial Crisis, around 50% in both the 2018 correction and the Covid pandemic selloff, and dipped close to 38% during the inflation shock. Even with strong fundamentals, big market events can trigger deep drops. So, while the company may have positives, history shows it’s not immune to tough market swings.
CMG stock may have seen strong gains recently, but investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.