Between McDonald’s and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Which Stock Looks Set to Break Out?
Chipotle Mexican Grill fell -12% during the past Week. You may be tempted to buy more, or may want to reduce your exposure. But there is an entirely different perspective you might be missing. Is there a better alternative? Turns out, its peer McDonald’s gives you more. McDonald’s (MCD) stock offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and relatively lower valuation vs Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) stock, suggesting you may be better off investing in MCD
- MCD’s quarterly revenue growth was 9.4%, vs. CMG’s 7.4%.
- In addition, its Last 12 Months revenue growth came in at 6.8%, ahead of CMG’s 5.7%.
- MCD leads on profitability over both periods – LTM margin of 46.0% and 3-year average of 45.9%.
These differences become even clearer when you look at the financials side by side. The table highlights how CMG’s fundamentals stack up against those of MCD on growth, margins, momentum, and valuation multiples.
Valuation & Performance Overview
| CMG | MCD | Preferred | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | |||
| P/EBIT Ratio | 19.3 | 15.4 | MCD |
| Revenue Growth | |||
| Last Quarter | 7.4% | 9.4% | MCD |
| Last 12 Months | 5.7% | 6.8% | MCD |
| Last 3 Year Average | 10.6% | 5.5% | CMG |
| Operating Margins | |||
| Last 12 Months | 16.0% | 46.0% | MCD |
| Last 3 Year Average | 16.8% | 45.9% | MCD |
| Momentum | |||
| Last 3 Year Return | -30.3% | 1.2% | MCD |
Note: For “Last 3 Year Return” metric, preferred stock is one with higher returns unless the returns are too high (>300%) which creates risk of sell off.
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See detailed fundamentals on Buy or Sell MCD Stock and Buy or Sell CMG Stock. Below we compare market return and related metrics across years.
Historical Market Performance
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | Avg | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| CMG Return | 26% | -21% | 65% | 32% | -39% | -21% | 6% | ||
| MCD Return | 28% | 1% | 15% | 0% | 8% | -8% | 46% | ||
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 103% | <=== | |
| Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||||
| CMG Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 33% | 33% | 49% | ||
| MCD Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 47% | ||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 67% | 65% | <=== | |
| Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||||
| CMG Max Drawdown | -18% | -31% | -17% | -27% | -51% | -28% | -29% | ||
| MCD Max Drawdown | -5% | -17% | -17% | -17% | -11% | -19% | -14% | ||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | -13% | <=== | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/3/2026 (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
No matter how good the numbers, stock investment is never a smooth ride. There is a risk you must factor in. Read MCD Dip Buyer Analyses and CMG Dip Buyer Analyses to see how these stocks have fallen and recovered in the past.
Still not sure about CMG or MCD? Consider portfolio approach.
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