Comcast Stock at Support Zone – Bargain or Trap?
Comcast (CMCSA) stock should be on your watchlist. Here is why – it is currently trading in the support zone ($28.80 – $31.84), levels from which it has bounced meaningfully before. In the last 10 years, Comcast stock received buying interest at this level 7 times and subsequently went on to generate 32.0% in average peak returns.
| Peak Return | Days to Peak Return | |
|---|---|---|
| 12/22/2016 | 23.5% | 398 |
| 7/16/2018 | 13.3% | 136 |
| 12/26/2018 | 9.5% | 42 |
| 2/6/2019 | 30.3% | 345 |
| 4/3/2020 | 86.4% | 517 |
| 10/24/2022 | 18.1% | 50 |
| 12/19/2022 | 42.5% | 409 |
Yet, a support zone alone isn’t enough; rebounds are more likely when fundamentals, sentiment, and market conditions line up. How does that look for CMCSA?
Rebound likely; diverse growth offsets broadband erosion.
Comcast’s strategic spin-off of Versant Media Group unlocks value, while its theme parks (Epic Universe driving 19% Q3 revenue growth) and domestic wireless (record Q3 additions) exhibit strong momentum. Free cash flow generation remains robust, enabling shareholder returns. While domestic broadband continues to shed subscribers amidst intense competition, business services connectivity consistently performs. Analyst average price targets indicate significant upside, suggesting underlying fundamental strength in growth segments may overcome connectivity platform headwinds.
How Do CMCSA Financials Look Right Now?
- Revenue Growth: 2.5% LTM and 0.7% last 3-year average.
- Cash Generation: Nearly 13.4% free cash flow margin and 18.1% operating margin LTM.
- Recent Revenue Shocks: The minimum annual revenue growth in the last 3 years for CMCSA was -0.9%.
- Valuation: CMCSA stock trades at a PE multiple of 5.1
| CMCSA | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Communication Services | – |
| Industry | Cable & Satellite | – |
| PE Ratio | 5.1 | 23.5 |
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| LTM* Revenue Growth | 2.5% | 6.0% |
| 3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth | 0.7% | 5.4% |
| Min Annual Revenue Growth Last 3Y | -0.9% | 0.1% |
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| LTM* Operating Margin | 18.1% | 18.8% |
| 3Y Average Operating Margin | 18.9% | 18.3% |
| LTM* Free Cash Flow Margin | 13.4% | 13.4% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months | For more details on CMCSA fundamentals, read Buy or Sell CMCSA Stock.
And What If The Support Breaks?
CMCSA isn’t immune to big drops. It fell 44% in the Dot-Com Bubble and 62% during the Global Financial Crisis. The 2022 Inflation Shock wiped out over 50% from its peak. Even less severe events, like the 2018 Correction and Covid selloff, still knocked it down around 28% to 31%. So, despite any strong fundamentals, this stock can still take a serious hit when markets turn. Risk is real, even for solid names.
Still not sure about CMCSA stock? Consider the portfolio approach.
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