Comcast Stock at Support Zone – Bargain or Trap?

+24.42%
Upside
30.27
Market
37.66
Trefis
CMCSA: Comcast logo
CMCSA
Comcast

Comcast (CMCSA) stock should be on your watchlist. Here is why – it is currently trading in the support zone ($28.80 – $31.84), levels from which it has bounced meaningfully before. In the last 10 years, Comcast stock received buying interest at this level 7 times and subsequently went on to generate 32.0% in average peak returns.

  Peak Return Days to Peak Return
12/22/2016 23.5% 398
7/16/2018 13.3% 136
12/26/2018 9.5% 42
2/6/2019 30.3% 345
4/3/2020 86.4% 517
10/24/2022 18.1% 50
12/19/2022 42.5% 409

Yet, a support zone alone isn’t enough; rebounds are more likely when fundamentals, sentiment, and market conditions line up. How does that look for CMCSA?

Rebound likely; diverse growth offsets broadband erosion.

Comcast’s strategic spin-off of Versant Media Group unlocks value, while its theme parks (Epic Universe driving 19% Q3 revenue growth) and domestic wireless (record Q3 additions) exhibit strong momentum. Free cash flow generation remains robust, enabling shareholder returns. While domestic broadband continues to shed subscribers amidst intense competition, business services connectivity consistently performs. Analyst average price targets indicate significant upside, suggesting underlying fundamental strength in growth segments may overcome connectivity platform headwinds.

Relevant Articles
  1. Comcast Stock Capital Return Hits $44 Bil
  2. Comcast: A $100 BIllion Stock At 6x P/E
  3. Market Leader Comcast Stock at 36% Discount, Worth Buying?
  4. What To Expect From Comcast’s Q3 Earnings?
  5. High Margins, Lower Price: Is Comcast Stock a Buy?
  6. Ten-Year Tally: Comcast Stock Delivers $45 Bil Gain

How Do CMCSA Financials Look Right Now?

  • Revenue Growth: 2.5% LTM and 0.7% last 3-year average.
  • Cash Generation: Nearly 13.4% free cash flow margin and 18.1% operating margin LTM.
  • Recent Revenue Shocks: The minimum annual revenue growth in the last 3 years for CMCSA was -0.9%.
  • Valuation: CMCSA stock trades at a PE multiple of 5.1

  CMCSA S&P Median
Sector Communication Services
Industry Cable & Satellite
PE Ratio 5.1 23.5

   
LTM* Revenue Growth 2.5% 6.0%
3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth 0.7% 5.4%
Min Annual Revenue Growth Last 3Y -0.9% 0.1%

   
LTM* Operating Margin 18.1% 18.8%
3Y Average Operating Margin 18.9% 18.3%
LTM* Free Cash Flow Margin 13.4% 13.4%

*LTM: Last Twelve Months | For more details on CMCSA fundamentals, read Buy or Sell CMCSA Stock.

And What If The Support Breaks?

CMCSA isn’t immune to big drops. It fell 44% in the Dot-Com Bubble and 62% during the Global Financial Crisis. The 2022 Inflation Shock wiped out over 50% from its peak. Even less severe events, like the 2018 Correction and Covid selloff, still knocked it down around 28% to 31%. So, despite any strong fundamentals, this stock can still take a serious hit when markets turn. Risk is real, even for solid names.

Still not sure about CMCSA stock? Consider the portfolio approach.

The Best Investors Think In Portfolios

Stocks soar and sink – the key is staying invested. A balanced portfolio keeps you in the market, boosts gains and reduces single stock risk

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.