Can You Stomach the Plunges in Cboe Global Markets Stock?

Its core business is hitting records, but the stock’s history in a market shock reveals a different kind of risk.

Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), a financial exchange operator, saw its stock fall 4.0% in the latest session, and it now trades about 30% below its 52-week high. This comes even after a record first quarter where management reported net revenue grew 29% year-over-year, powered by its core derivatives business and proprietary SPX options. The market is weighing this strength against a major strategic realignment that will reduce its workforce by approximately 20% as it pivots to new areas like event contracts.

This uncertainty makes the downside question urgent. That single-day drop is one thing, but how does this stock behave in a true, sustained market shock, and can you ride that out?

When the Market Breaks, How Hard Does Cboe Global Markets Fall?

The history shows that while Cboe stock tends to fall less than the broader market, the drops are still sizable. Across the 13 market shocks it has traded through, its average peak-to-trough fall was about 9%, compared to 14% for the S&P 500. But averages can mask the pain of the worst moments. Its single deepest drawdown was a 37% plunge during the market crash of 2020.

The stock has been most vulnerable during “Growth & Demand Scare” environments, a category that includes the 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare, the Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare, and that same market crash of 2020.

How Long Cboe Global Markets Takes To Recover

Surviving the fall is one thing; waiting for the recovery is another. Of the shocks it has fully recovered from, Cboe stock took a median of about 7 months to reclaim its pre-shock high. Patience is key, as the climb back is not always swift.

The slowest full recovery on record took about 30 months following the 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / a rapid market disruption. A resilient history provides a useful guide, but it is not a guarantee of a quick rebound next time.

Every Major Shock Cboe Global Markets Has Traded Through

Peak-to-trough drawdown in each shock, and how long the stock took to reclaim its pre-shock high. Stock vs. the S&P 500, long-duration bonds, and its sector.

[1] 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash: Greece’s deficit revelation collapsed European banks and triggered the May Flash Crash.
[2] 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion: US credit downgrade and European sovereign stress triggered a broad risk-off selloff.
[3] 2013 Taper Tantrum: Bernanke’s taper hint spiked Treasury yields, triggering emerging market capital flight.
[4] 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse: OPEC refused to cut output, crashing crude from $100 to $26.
[5] 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare: Yuan devaluation sparked global recession fears, crushing cyclicals and emerging markets.
[6] 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff: Trump’s election spurred fiscal stimulus hopes, rotating capital from bonds into cyclicals.
[7] Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare: Powell’s hawkish comments and trade war fears triggered the worst December since 1931.
[8] 2020 COVID-19 Crash: Pandemic lockdowns caused history’s fastest bear market before massive stimulus drove recovery.
[9] 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening: 9.1% CPI forced aggressive rate hikes, crushing both stocks and bonds simultaneously.
[10] 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis: SVB’s rate-driven bond losses triggered a social-media bank run, seized by FDIC.
[11] Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock: Strong economic data pushed 10-year yields to 5%, compressing yield-sensitive sector valuations.
[12] 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind: BOJ rate hike unwound yen carry trades, briefly crashing tech stocks globally.
[13] 2025 US Tariff Shock: 145% China tariffs crashed equities and the dollar on supply chain disruption fears.

Is This A Sturdier Cboe Global Markets Now?

The Cboe of today is not the same company that endured those earlier shocks. Financially, it appears stronger. Trailing twelve-month revenue is up 10.6%, and its operating margin of 34.8% is at a three-year peak. On its latest earnings call, management highlighted record results across its derivatives and cash markets segments. Yet, the company is also in flux.

It is executing a major strategic realignment, which includes selling its Cboe Canada and Cboe Australia businesses and reducing its workforce by approximately 20%. This pivot toward new, unproven areas like event contracts introduces significant execution risk, even as long-term competitive questions about its core SPX franchise persist.

Are You Built To Hold Through It?

A 37% drawdown, the deepest on record for this stock, is not an abstract number. On a position sized at 10% of a portfolio, that fall would have cut about 4% from your total holdings. At a 20% position weight, the hit would be about 7%. The real lever you control is not predicting the next shock but managing your exposure before one arrives.

Disciplined position sizing and genuine diversification are the tools for ensuring you can ride out the inevitable volatility. The execution of this strategic pivot is the key variable to watch.

That discipline is exactly what the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio is built to deliver: it pairs the upside of strong businesses with the stability of a 30-stock portfolio, sized and rebalanced with discipline, and has a track record of outpacing a benchmark that combines all major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. Pairing a concentrated holding with an approach like this is how you keep compounding without a single drawdown derailing the plan.