How Will Caterpillar Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, April 30, 2026. The company has $381 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $68 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $11 Bil in operating profits and net income of $8.9 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Caterpillar’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 3.4%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -3.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/29/2026 | 3.4% | 7.5% | 15.5% |
| 10/29/2025 | 11.6% | 4.4% | 9.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.1% | -5.8% | -4.3% |
| 4/30/2025 | 0.6% | 4.4% | 14.4% |
| 1/30/2025 | -4.6% | -8.7% | -12.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | -2.1% | -1.1% | 4.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | 3.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | -7.0% | -8.9% | -3.5% |
| 2/5/2024 | 2.0% | 0.7% | 5.9% |
| 10/31/2023 | -6.7% | -1.6% | 3.0% |
| 8/1/2023 | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% |
| 4/27/2023 | -0.9% | -0.3% | -2.9% |
| 1/31/2023 | -3.5% | -3.9% | -4.9% |
| 10/27/2022 | 7.7% | 8.9% | 19.7% |
| 8/2/2022 | -5.8% | -4.6% | -4.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | -0.7% | 4.0% | -0.5% |
| 1/28/2022 | -5.2% | -5.5% | -11.6% |
| 10/28/2021 | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 7/30/2021 | -2.7% | -2.5% | 0.1% |
| 4/29/2021 | -2.1% | 2.4% | 3.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 11.6% | 8.9% | 19.7% |
| Max Negative | -7.0% | -8.9% | -12.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -13.0% | 5.6% | 31.0% |
| 3Y History | -27.5% | -15.9% | 12.0% |
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