Braze Stock Tumbled 20% – Opportunity or Trap?
Braze (BRZE) stock has fallen by 20.0% in less than a month, from $32.65 on 9/22/2025 to $26.11 now. Should you buy this dip? Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, BRZE stock passes basic quality checks. But the bad news it that the stock has returned (median) -2% in one year, and 51% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. For quick background, BRZE provides a customer engagement platform with data ingestion tools and classification products for automated notifications and consumer segmentation based on attributes, events, and predictive scores.
For details on stock fundamentals and assessment: Read Buy or Sell Braze Stock to see the full picture.
BRZE stock has fallen meaningfully recently and we currently find it fairly priced. This may feel like a caution, and there is significant risk in relying on a single stock. However, there is a huge value to a broader diversified approach we take with Trefis High Quality Portfolio. We go beyond just equities. Is a portfolio of 10% commodities, 10% gold, and 2% crypto in addition to equities and bonds – likely to return more during the next 1-3 years, and protect you better if markets crash 20%? We have crunched the numbers.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -5.3% |
| 3M | 13.2% |
| 6M | -13.5% |
| 12M | -2.0% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
BRZE had 4 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 51% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 106 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -27% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | BRZE Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | BRZE | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -2% | 51% | -27% | 106 | ||||
| 10032024 | -31% | 2% | -8% | 54% | -21% | 117 | ||
| 9222022 | -33% | -11% | 36% | 47% | -32% | 354 | ||
| 5112022 | -39% | -15% | 4% | 78% | -20% | 96 | ||
| 1042022 | -31% | 2% | -62% | 5% | -65% | 7 | ||
Braze Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 22.2% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 30.1% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 5.6% | Pass |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.