BP Stock Up 8% Over Last Month. Will It Continue?

BP: BP logo

BP plc stock (NYSE: BP), a European integrated energy major, has increased by 8% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month) and currently stands at around $30. Due to the record oil and gas prices, BP reported a robust Q2 and increased its distribution and stock repurchases. In the second quarter, the company’s top-line grew 86% year-over-year (y-o-y) to $67.9 billion and the company saw a record replacement-cost profit of $8.5 billion, up 202% y-o-y. Additionally, the company reported an operating cash flow of $10.9 billion, up 101% y-o-y, raised its distribution by 10%, and announced another $3.5 billion in its stock repurchase program.  The company’s stock is 13% higher year-to-date.

However, investors need to be cautious as a decrease in oil, gas, or product prices could have an adverse effect on BP’s revenue, profitability, and cash flows. The ongoing selling pressure in Brent crude or possible reductions of oil prices for a prolonged period could impact the company’s performance going forward. In the upcoming Q3’22, BP expects its upstream production on a reported basis to be broadly flat compared with the second-quarter 2022.

Is BP stock poised to decline in the short term or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is only a 40% chance of a rise in BP stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis of BP’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

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Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using last ten years’ data

[1] Returns of 3.8% or higher over a five-day period on 279 occasions out of 2515 (11%); Stock rose in the next five days in 138 of these 279 instances (49%)

[2] Returns of 7.3% or higher over a ten-day period on 189 occasions out of 2515 (8%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 97 of these 189 instances (51%)

[3] Returns of 8.3% or higher over a twenty-one-day period on 314 occasions out of 2515 (12%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 127 of these 314 instances (40%)

It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. BP Peers shows how BP’s stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Aug 2022
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 BP Return 3% 13% -12%
 S&P 500 Return 0% -13% 85%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 5% -9% 259%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/9/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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