Will Uncertain Times Last Longer For BP Stock?

+22.17%
Upside
26.19
Market
32.00
Trefis
BP: BP logo
BP
BP

In accordance with sanctions imposed by Western countries, BP (NYSE: BP) announced an end to its partnership with Rosneft, the large Russian energy company. Per recent filings, BP has a 19.75% stake in Rosneft with a carrying value of $14 billion. The company is slated to release a non-cash adjustment relating to the difference in fair and carrying value in the first quarter results. Per annual filings, BP reported $113 billion and $31 billion of property, plant & equipment and investment in joint ventures, respectively. Given the sizable share of the company’s investments in geographies other than Russia and expectations of high benchmark prices in 2022, Trefis believes that BP stock is likely to retain its value despite impairments associated with the Rosneft stake.

So is BP stock likely to rise further in the coming weeks and months or is a decline looking more likely? Per the Trefis machine learning engine which analyzes historical stock price movements, BP stock has a 50% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis BP Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

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Five Days: BP 0.9%, vs. S&P 500 -2.8%; Outperformed market (37% event probability)

  • BP stock gained 0.9% over a five-day trading period ending 03/14/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 2.8% over the same period.
  • Returns of 0.9% or higher over a five-day period on 932 occasions out of 2516 (37%); Stock rose in the next five days in 486 of these 932 instances (52%).

Ten Days: BP -8%, vs. S&P 500 -4%; Underperformed market (5% event probability)

  • BP stock lost 8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined by 4%.
  • Returns of -8% or lower over 10-day period on 128 occasions out of 2516 (5%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 70 of these 128 instances (55%).

Twenty-One Days: BP -14%, vs. S&P 500 -8.2%; Underperformed market (3% event probability)

  • BP stock declined 14% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined by 8.2%.
  • Returns of -14% or lower over 21-day period on 66 occasions out of 2515 (3%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 33 of these 66 instances (50%).

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 Returns Mar 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 BP Return -3% 6% -17%
 S&P 500 Return -4% -12% 88%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -4% -14% 238%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/14/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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