Boot Barn Stock To $122?
Boot Barn (BOOT) stock has fallen by 14.6% in less than a month, from $203.61 on 9th Feb, 2026 to $173.87 now. What comes next? We think that the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of our Unattractive opinion of the stock, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $122 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years. Read Buy or Sell Boot Barn Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on BOOT stock to help you make the decision. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 46%, with median peak return reaching 81%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 20% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -3.4% |
| 3M | 5.7% |
| 6M | 27.7% |
| 12M | 45.6% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
BOOT had 13 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
- 81% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 330 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -29% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | BOOT Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | BOOT | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 46% | 81% | -29% | 330 | ||||
| 3032025 | -25% | -1% | 51% | 81% | -22% | 283 | ||
| 10302024 | -21% | 4% | 45% | 59% | -30% | 362 | ||
| 10262023 | -22% | -8% | 134% | 144% | -0% | 330 | ||
| 9262022 | -25% | -14% | 43% | 84% | -7% | 311 | ||
| 5232022 | -23% | -11% | -9% | 21% | -29% | 16 | ||
| 1202022 | -24% | -4% | -20% | 9% | -47% | 57 | ||
| 7092020 | -23% | 4% | 327% | 335% | -6% | 350 | ||
| 2102020 | -25% | 4% | 78% | 83% | -68% | 361 | ||
| 10292018 | -21% | -8% | 60% | 62% | -34% | 358 | ||
| 5232017 | -25% | 2% | 206% | 219% | -22% | 358 | ||
| 12302016 | -22% | 3% | 38% | 39% | -52% | 362 | ||
| 4082016 | -30% | 5% | 46% | 148% | -16% | 231 | ||
| 8142015 | -22% | 1% | -54% | 0% | -78% | 0 | ||
Boot Barn Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 17.5% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 10.4% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 12.3% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 192.8 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 131.0 |
Not sure if you can take a call on BOOT stock? Consider portfolio approach
The Best Investors Think In Portfolios
Stocks can jump or crash but long term success comes from staying invested. The right portfolio helps you ride gains and cushion single stock drops.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? HQ Portfolio has posted more than 105% in cumulative return since inception, with less risk versus the benchmark index, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.