Could Bristol Myers Squibb Stock Survive Shrinking Eliquis Sales?
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Executives at Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) have quantified the expected sales decline for their best-selling drug. On the October 29, 2026 call, management said Eliquis faces a loss of exclusivity in Europe and a $1.5 billion to $2 billion step down in 2027. This outlook matters to investors holding a stock that returned 40.5% over the past year, compared to 13.1% for the S&P 500. How much of Bristol Myers Squibb’s revenue is that step down?
Bristol Myers Squibb Risks Up To 4% Of Revenue In 2027
At the top of management’s range, the 2027 step down equals about 4% of the $50.0 billion in revenue Bristol Myers Squibb reported over the past twelve months. The broader Eliquis business is much larger, generating $14.4 billion of sales in fiscal 2025, or 30.0% of that year’s company revenue. The guided loss therefore represents a slice of the drug’s total sales, rather than the whole of it. The medicine is also still growing for now, with third-quarter sales reaching $4.7 billion, up 26% from a year earlier.
Bristol Myers Squibb has lived through a bigger drop in one drug before. Revlimid sales fell by $2.82 billion in fiscal 2025, more than the top of the Eliquis range. Company revenue in fiscal 2025 was $48.2 billion, nearly level with a year earlier, so the company kept its sales level through a larger loss than the one now guided. Part of that offset came from Eliquis, whose sales rose from $13.3 billion to $14.4 billion that year. Eliquis is the drug set to lose sales in 2027.
What Bristol Myers Squibb Has Against An Eliquis Slide
Bristol Myers Squibb’s primary defense is the group of medicines it classifies as its growth portfolio. On the October 29 call, an analyst asked about the growth portfolio’s ability to fill the gap from lost exclusivity. The growth portfolio generated $7.7 billion in the third quarter, up 12% from a year earlier. Based on those third-quarter sales, management said eight of those medicines now each run at more than $1 billion a year.
The company also continues to bring in cash. Over the past twelve months, free cash flow was $9.29 billion, down from $15.3 billion a year earlier. That amount still covered the $5.12 billion Bristol Myers Squibb paid in dividends, leaving about $4.2 billion.
The company carries a heavier debt load than the broader market. Total debt equals 34.9% of Bristol Myers Squibb’s market value, compared to 19.0% for the S&P 500. Even so, operating income covered interest expense 8.8 times over the past twelve months.
When Will Bristol Myers Squibb Report An Eliquis Hit?
Bristol Myers Squibb’s fourth quarter of this year is the first period management expects to carry the European loss of exclusivity. Management said Eliquis sales in that quarter will be impacted by it, partly offset by continued growth in the U.S. For fiscal 2026 as a whole, management still guides Eliquis growth of 20% to 25%.
The other drugs grouped with Eliquis in its legacy portfolio are already losing sales to generic entry, management said. It expects total legacy portfolio revenue to fall 3% to 5% in fiscal 2026, even with Eliquis growing. Eliquis revenue for the fourth quarter is the number to watch when Bristol Myers Squibb reports, expected in February 2027.
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