What Is Moderna Building That Investors Should Watch?
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Moderna (MRNA) shares trade at 39.9 times the company’s sales, compared with 3.2 times for the S&P 500. Yet Moderna lost $2.93 billion on its operations over the past twelve months, so buyers appear to be paying for something beyond its COVID vaccines. For that bet to pay off, a cancer treatment Moderna is developing with Merck has to reach patients, and the vaccines must keep paying for the work until it does. How close is that cancer treatment to reaching patients?
Moderna Plans To File Its Cancer Treatment In 2026
The treatment, Intismeran, has passed a phase 3 trial so far but has not been filed for approval. On the November 6 call, management said Moderna is working with Merck to file the treatment in 2026, and hopes to see it approved in 2027. Moderna already makes Intismeran individually for each patient at a manufacturing site in Marlboro, Massachusetts.
The INTerpath-001 trial was a study in melanoma. Patients given Intismeran with KEYTRUDA had a 42% lower risk of their cancer returning, or of death, than patients given KEYTRUDA alone. Management said the pairing is the first combination immunotherapy to show added benefit over KEYTRUDA alone in patients whose melanoma had already been removed by surgery.
Can Moderna Keep Paying For Its Cancer Work?
In 2026 it can, with help from borrowed money. Almost everything Moderna sold in fiscal 2025 was a COVID vaccine, making up $1.81 billion of its $1.92 billion in revenue. Sales are growing again, and on the November 6 call, management raised its 2026 framework to revenue growth of 15% to 25%, from up to 10% before.
Moderna has also borrowed for the cancer work. In fiscal Q3 2026 it raised $3 billion through a convertible note that pays no interest, or about $2.6 billion after fees and the cost of capped calls, a hedge meant to limit future dilution. Management said the money strengthens its ability to invest in its cancer business. Management now expects cash and investments of $8.1 billion to $8.3 billion at the end of 2026.
Moderna stock returned 922.1% over the year ending November 10, 2026, against 13.1% for the S&P 500, closing that day 6.8% below its highest close of the year. For a company that still relies on COVID vaccines, the share price appears to assume that Moderna will sell far more than vaccines in the years ahead.
What Does Moderna’s Trial Result Leave Open?
The melanoma result shows that Intismeran worked in that trial, but it leaves open what Moderna will charge for it. The question of price came up on the November 6 call, and management said it is premature to say, adding that it will work closely with Merck on pricing.
Management also pointed to a bigger benefit among patients actually treated with Intismeran: a 49% lower risk of the cancer returning, or of death, though the trial’s primary result is the 42%.
If the filing slips, what you own is a vaccine maker whose COVID sales fell 41.3% in fiscal 2025, trading at a price well above the S&P 500’s on sales. Management said its higher year-end cash projection comes partly from the better revenue outlook, so a weaker vaccine season would likely leave less cash for the cancer work. Leaving out the $2.6 billion from the note, management projects $5.5 billion to $5.7 billion, up from $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion before.
Today Moderna’s growing vaccine sales do not yet cover its costs, so it is also paying for the cancer work with borrowed money and cash it already holds, while the cancer treatment has a strong trial result but no filing yet. The filing date for Intismeran is the thing to watch, and Moderna’s Analyst Day on November 12 is the next time management speaks to investors.
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