How Will BlackRock Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, January 15, 2026. The company has $169 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $23 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $7.7 Bil in operating profits and net income of $6.1 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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BlackRock’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 14 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 33% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 7 positive returns = 2.1%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -1.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/15/2024 | -0.6% | 0.3% | 1.2% |
| 4/12/2024 | -2.9% | -4.9% | 1.4% |
| 1/12/2024 | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% |
| 10/13/2023 | -1.3% | -2.1% | 4.5% |
| 7/14/2023 | -1.6% | 1.5% | -6.0% |
| 4/14/2023 | 3.1% | 3.8% | -3.8% |
| 1/13/2023 | 0.0% | -1.6% | -2.3% |
| 10/13/2022 | 6.6% | 8.8% | 43.1% |
| 7/15/2022 | 2.0% | 8.6% | 27.7% |
| 4/13/2022 | -0.2% | -2.5% | -16.2% |
| 1/14/2022 | -2.2% | -7.7% | -12.4% |
| 10/13/2021 | 3.8% | 7.8% | 14.7% |
| 7/14/2021 | -3.1% | -3.2% | 1.0% |
| 4/15/2021 | 2.1% | 1.3% | 4.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| # Negative | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -2.9% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 6.6% | 8.8% | 43.1% |
| Max Negative | -3.1% | -7.7% | -16.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 33.6% | 59.8% | 43.9% |
| 3Y History | -17.2% | -66.0% | -74.4% |
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