Bath & Body Works stock (NYSE: BBWI), the largest specialty home fragrance & body care product retailer in the U.S, formerly known as L Brands before the spin-off of Victoria’s Secret (NYSE: VSCO) into a stand-alone company, has increased by 15% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month) and currently stands at around $57. It should be noted that the broader S&P500 returned a flat growth over the last month. The company posted full-year 2021 revenues of $7.8 billion, which rose a solid 22% year-over-year (y-o-y), and full-year adjusted earnings of $4.51 per share, up 45% y-o-y. However, the company guides for modest earnings declines in the first quarter, and the full-year earnings guidance for 2022 is set to come in between $4.30 and $4.70 per share. Also, given the near-term underlying macro uncertainty on the inflationary environment, the retailer’s stock looks appropriately priced at the current price.
Going by our BBWI’s Valuation, with adjusted earnings per share estimate of around $4.32 and a P/E multiple of 13.4x in fiscal 2022, this translates into a price of around $58, only 2% higher than the current market price.
Now, is BBWI stock poised to decline in the short term or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 51% chance of a rise in BBWI stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on BBWI’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.
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Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using last ten years’ data
 Returns of 16% or higher over a five-day period on 39 occasions out of 2516 (2%); Stock rose in the next five days in 17 of these 39 instances (44%)
 Returns of 21% or higher over a ten-day period on 38 occasions out of 2516 (2%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 21 of these 38 instances (55%)
 Returns of 15% or higher over a twenty-one-day period on 228 occasions out of 2515 (9%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 117 of these 228 instances (51%)
It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. BBWI Peers shows how Bath & Body Works’ stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
|S&P 500 Return||-2%||-6%||99%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||-2%||-9%||257%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/21/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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