Is BigBear.ai Stock Built to Withstand More Downside?
BigBear.ai (BBAI) stock is down 16.3% in 21 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around its accounting practices and declining government contracts, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where BigBear.ai stands today.
- Size: BigBear.ai is a $1.9 Bil company with $153 Mil in revenue currently trading at $5.79.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 3.5% and operating margin of -36.7%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.05 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.65
- Valuation: BigBear.ai stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of -4.8 and P/EBIT multiple of -5.2
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Very High valuation – making the stock Very Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell BBAI Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is BBAI stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose BBAI stock falls another 20-30% to $4 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- BBAI stock fell 95.0% from a high of $12.69 on 13 April 2022 to $0.63 on 29 December 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $9.78 on 13 February 2025 , and currently trades at $5.79
| BBAI | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -95.0% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
Feeling jittery about BBAI stock? Consider portfolio approach.
Portfolios Over Individual Stock Picks
Individual stocks can soar or tank but one thing matters: staying invested. The right portfolio can help you stay invested, capture upside and mitigate the downside associated with any individual stock.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.