How Will AutoZone Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. The company has $57 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $20 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.5 Bil in operating profits and a net income of $2.4 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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AutoZone’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 6 positive and 14 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 30% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 25% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 6 positive returns = 4.7%, and median of the 14 negative returns = -3.0%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 3/3/2026 | -6.3% | -5.4% | -13.0% |
| 12/9/2025 | -7.2% | -7.4% | -12.0% |
| 9/23/2025 | -0.0% | 3.7% | -2.8% |
| 5/27/2025 | -3.4% | -2.0% | -8.8% |
| 3/4/2025 | -0.1% | 6.1% | 9.6% |
| 12/10/2024 | 0.7% | 0.8% | -2.2% |
| 9/24/2024 | -0.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% |
| 5/21/2024 | -3.5% | -4.2% | 2.9% |
| 2/27/2024 | 6.7% | 11.2% | 15.2% |
| 12/5/2023 | 0.3% | -1.1% | -4.0% |
| 9/19/2023 | -1.9% | 2.3% | 5.1% |
| 5/23/2023 | -6.0% | -6.3% | -6.9% |
| 2/28/2023 | -3.3% | -2.0% | -6.5% |
| 12/6/2022 | -2.8% | -3.0% | -4.4% |
| 9/19/2022 | -3.1% | -3.2% | 5.7% |
| 5/24/2022 | 5.8% | 14.1% | 16.8% |
| 3/1/2022 | -2.5% | -0.2% | 11.5% |
| 12/7/2021 | 7.6% | 5.6% | 8.2% |
| 9/21/2021 | 3.7% | 6.7% | 11.3% |
| 5/25/2021 | -1.9% | -2.6% | -0.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 5.6% | 8.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -3.0% | -5.4% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 14.1% | 16.8% |
| Max Negative | -7.2% | -7.4% | -13.0% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 50.4% | 40.6% | 2.7% |
| 3Y History | 59.9% | 46.2% | -20.5% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of AutoZone stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before AutoZone. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZO Earnings Dates | AZO | ORLY | AAP | LKQ |
| 3/3/2026 | -6.3% | -3.0% | -11.8% | -3.9% |
| 3/4/2025 | -0.1% | 0.6% | N/A* | 0.8% |
| 12/10/2024 | 0.7% | N/A* | 14.2% | N/A* |
| 5/21/2024 | -3.5% | -8.9% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 2/27/2024 | 6.7% | 1.4% | N/A* | 2.1% |
| 9/19/2023 | -1.9% | N/A* | -14.1% | N/A* |
| 5/23/2023 | -6.0% | 2.0% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 2/28/2023 | -3.3% | 5.4% | N/A* | 1.8% |
| 12/6/2022 | -2.8% | N/A* | -20.9% | N/A* |
| 9/19/2022 | -3.1% | N/A* | -14.8% | N/A* |
| 5/24/2022 | 5.8% | -14.7% | -1.6% | -3.8% |
| 3/1/2022 | -2.5% | 2.5% | -10.3% | -3.7% |
| 12/7/2021 | 7.6% | N/A* | -2.9% | N/A* |
| 9/21/2021 | 3.7% | N/A* | -0.5% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | -55.4% | 24.3% | 22.2% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after AZO
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