What To Expect From American Express Stock?

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Trefis
AXP: American Express Company logo
AXP
American Express Company

American Express stock (NYSE: AXP) has gained 5.5% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (up 4.8%). Further, the same trend was evident over the last one-month horizon, with the stock increasing 4.8%. In comparison, the broader markets gained 3.9% over the same period. 

The company issues credit cards and provides global payment solutions. Its top-line has benefited in 2021, with cumulative nine months revenues increasing 13% y-o-y to $30.2 billion. This was mainly driven by a 19% jump in the non-interest revenues, thanks to the increase in the worldwide network volumes. Moving forward, AXP is likely to report strong results in the fourth quarter of the year. The consensus estimate for American Express’s revenues and EPS are around $11.41 billion and $1.79 respectively. Further, the world has witnessed a push toward digital transactions over the last one and a half years due to the Covid-19 crisis. We expect the digital transaction volumes to see continued growth even after the Covid-era. Overall, the above factors are behind the positive investor sentiment toward the stock.

Now, is AXP stock set to rise further, or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 69% chance of a rise in American Express stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on American Express Stock Chance of Rise.

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Twenty-One Day: AXP 4.8%, vs. S&P500 3.9%; Outperformed market

(25% likelihood event; 69% probability of rise over next 69 days)

  • American Express stock gained 4.8% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.9%
  • A change of 4.8% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 25% likelihood event, which has occurred 632 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 632 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 434 occasions
  • This points to a 69% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: AXP 0.7%, vs. S&P500 2.2%; Underperformed market

(48% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • American Express stock increased 0.7% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) gain of 2.2%
  • A change of 0.7% or more over ten trading days is a 48% likelihood event, which has occurred 1197 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1197 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 665 occasions
  • This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: AXP 5.5%, vs. S&P500 4.8%; Outperformed market

(6% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next five days)

  • American Express stock gained 5.5% over a five-day trading period ending 12/28/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) gain of 4.8%
  • A change of 5.5% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 6% likelihood event, which has occurred 149 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 149 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 77 occasions
  • This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Dec 2021
MTD [1]
2021
YTD [1]
2017-21
Total [2]
 AXP Return 5% 36% 122%
 S&P 500 Return 4% 27% 114%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 2% 47% 296%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/29/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

 

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