Where Is American Express Stock Headed?

-2.70%
Downside
172
Market
168
Trefis
AXP: American Express Company logo
AXP
American Express Company

American Express’ stock (NYSE: AXP) has lost 1.1% in the last week, underperforming the S&P 500 (down 0.03%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (-2.6% vs -0.7%) and one month period (2.7% vs 4.2%). 

The credit card giant posted better-than-expected results in the third quarter of 2022, with net revenues increasing 24% y-o-y to $13.6 billion. Further, the same pattern was observed over the first nine months of the year – revenues up 28% y-o-y. It was driven by an increase in billed business, growth in the premium card portfolio, higher travel-related revenues, and improvement in net interest income. Overall, the stock has delivered a strong performance in YTD terms and has outperformed the index (-8% vs -17%).

Now, is AXP stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 64% chance of a rise in AXP stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on American Express’ Stock Chance of Rise.

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  3. American Express Stock Topped The Street Expectations In Q1, Is It Fairly Priced?
  4. American Express Stock To Top The Street Expectations In Q1?
  5. American Express Stock Topped The Consensus In Q4, Is It A Buy?
  6. What To Expect From American Express Stock?

Twenty-One Day: AXP 2.7%, vs. S&P500 4.2%; Underperformed market

(40% likelihood event; 64% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • American Express stock gained 2.7% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) increase of 4.2%
  • A change of 2.7% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 40% likelihood event, which has occurred 998 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 998 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 643 occasions
  • This points to a 64% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: AXP -2.6%, vs. S&P500 -0.7%; Underperformed market

(18% likelihood event; 66% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • American Express stock decreased 2.6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.7%
  • A change of -2.6% or more over ten trading days is a 18% likelihood event, which has occurred 463 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 463 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 306 occasions
  • This points to a 66% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Five Day: AXP -1.1%, vs. S&P500 -0.03%; Underperformed market

(31% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next five days)

  • American Express stock lost 1.1% over a five-day trading period ending 11/28/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 0.03%
  • A change of -1.1% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 31% likelihood event, which has occurred 780 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 780 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 462 occasion
  • This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Nov 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 AXP Return 2% -8% 104%
 S&P 500 Return 2% -17% 77%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 2% -20% 215%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/29/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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