AeroVironment Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go?
AeroVironment (AVAV) stock is down 17.4% in a day. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around its Space Force SCAR program and Raymond James downgrade, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where AeroVironment stands today.
- Size: AeroVironment is a $10 Bil company with $1.4 Bil in revenue currently trading at $208.32.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 79.9% and operating margin of -5.1%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.08 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.1
- Valuation: AeroVironment stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of -148.9 and P/EBIT multiple of -121.7
- Has returned (median) 40.8% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See AVAV Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Moderate operational performance, alongside High valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell AVAV Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is AVAV stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose AVAV stock falls another 20-30% to $146 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- AVAV stock fell 61.0% from a high of $137.94 on 9 February 2021 to $53.78 on 28 January 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 1 December 2023
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $409.83 on 13 October 2025 , and currently trades at $208.32
| AVAV | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -61.0% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 672 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- AVAV stock fell 35.3% from a high of $72.16 on 5 February 2020 to $46.72 on 12 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 3 June 2020
| AVAV | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -35.3% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 83 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- AVAV stock fell 58.7% from a high of $119.83 on 18 September 2018 to $49.54 on 27 August 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 January 2021
| AVAV | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -58.7% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 506 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- AVAV stock fell 51.9% from a high of $40.03 on 13 February 2009 to $19.27 on 18 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 March 2014
| AVAV | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -51.9% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1,832 days | 1,480 days |
Feeling jittery about AVAV stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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