AeroVironment Stock To $232?
AeroVironment (AVAV) stock has fallen 16% during the past day, and is currently trading at $330.89. Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to sell AVAV stock. We have, overall, a pessimistic view of the stock, and a price of $232 may not be out of reach. We believe there are only a couple of things to fear in AVAV stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its Very High valuation, we think that the stock is Unattractive.
Below is our assessment:
| CONCLUSION | |
|---|---|
| What you pay: | |
| Valuation | Very High |
| What you get: | |
| Growth | Very Strong |
| Profitability | Very Weak |
| Financial Stability | Very Strong |
| Downturn Resilience | Weak |
| Operating Performance | Moderate |
| Stock Opinion | Unattractive |
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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $16 Bil in market cap, AeroVironment provides unmanned aerial systems, tactical missile solutions, and related services to defense and allied governments, specializing in design, engineering, and manufacturing of advanced aircraft systems.
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[1] Valuation Looks Very High
| AVAV | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Price-to-Sales Ratio | 12.0 | 3.3 |
| Price-to-Earnings Ratio | -236.8 | 24.6 |
| Price-to-Free Cash Flow Ratio | -64.9 | 21.7 |
This table highlights how AVAV is valued vs broader market. For more details see: AVAV Valuation Ratios
[2] Growth Is Very Strong
- AeroVironment has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 48.0% over the last 3 years
- Its revenues have grown 80% from $761 Mil to $1.4 Bil in the last 12 months
- Also, its quarterly revenues grew 150.7% to $473 Mil in the most recent quarter from $188 Mil a year ago.
| AVAV | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-Year Average | 48.0% | 5.6% |
| Latest Twelve Months* | 79.9% | 6.4% |
| Most Recent Quarter (YoY)* | 150.7% | 7.3% |
This table highlights how AVAV is growing vs broader market. For more details see: AVAV Revenue Comparison
[3] Profitability Appears Very Weak
- AVAV last 12 month operating income was $-70 Mil representing operating margin of -5.1%
- With cash flow margin of -14.2%, it generated nearly $-195 Mil in operating cash flow over this period
- For the same period, AVAV generated nearly $-70 Mil in net income, suggesting net margin of about -5.1%
| AVAV | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Operating Margin | -5.1% | 18.8% |
| Current OCF Margin | -14.2% | 20.5% |
| Current Net Income Margin | -5.1% | 13.1% |
This table highlights how AVAV profitability vs broader market. For more details see: AVAV Operating Income Comparison
[4] Financial Stability Looks Very Strong
- AVAV Debt was $826 Mil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $16 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 5.0%
- AVAV Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $588 Mil of $5.6 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 10.4%
| AVAV | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 5.0% | 19.7% |
| Current Cash-to-Assets Ratio | 10.4% | 7.2% |
[5] Downturn Resilience Is Weak
AVAV has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
2022 Inflation Shock
- AVAV stock fell 61.0% from a high of $137.94 on 9 February 2021 to $53.78 on 28 January 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 1 December 2023
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $409.83 on 13 October 2025 , and currently trades at $330.89
| AVAV | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -61.0% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 672 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- AVAV stock fell 35.3% from a high of $72.16 on 5 February 2020 to $46.72 on 12 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 3 June 2020
| AVAV | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -35.3% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 83 days | 148 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- AVAV stock fell 51.9% from a high of $40.03 on 13 February 2009 to $19.27 on 18 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 March 2014
| AVAV | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -51.9% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1,832 days | 1,480 days |
But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read AVAV Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
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