AeroVironment Stock To $172?

AeroVironment (AVAV) stock has fallen 13% during the past day, and is currently trading at $245.25. Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to sell AVAV stock. We have, overall, a pessimistic view of the stock, and a price of $172 may not be out of reach. We believe there is a near-equal mix of good and bad in AVAV stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. Hence, together with its Very High valuation, this makes the stock look Risky.

Below is our assessment:

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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $16 Bil in market cap, AeroVironment provides unmanned aerial systems, tactical missile solutions, and related services to defense and allied governments, specializing in design, engineering, and manufacturing of advanced aircraft systems.

[1] Valuation Looks Very High

This table highlights how AVAV is valued vs broader market. For more details see: AVAV Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Very Strong

• AeroVironment has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 48.0% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 80% from $761 Mil to $1.4 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 150.7% to $473 Mil in the most recent quarter from $188 Mil a year ago.

This table highlights how AVAV is growing vs broader market. For more details see: AVAV Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Very Weak

• AVAV last 12 month operating income was $-70 Mil representing operating margin of -5.1%
• With cash flow margin of -14.2%, it generated nearly $-195 Mil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, AVAV generated nearly $-70 Mil in net income, suggesting net margin of about -5.1%

This table highlights how AVAV profitability vs broader market. For more details see: AVAV Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks N/A

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Weak

AVAV has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• AVAV stock fell 61.0% from a high of $137.94 on 9 February 2021 to $53.78 on 28 January 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 1 December 2023
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $409.83 on 13 October 2025 , and currently trades at $245.25

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• AVAV stock fell 35.3% from a high of $72.16 on 5 February 2020 to $46.72 on 12 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 3 June 2020

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• AVAV stock fell 51.9% from a high of $40.03 on 13 February 2009 to $19.27 on 18 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 March 2014

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read AVAV Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

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