AVAV Stock Falls -23% With A 5-day Losing Spree On US Army Contract Delay
AeroVironment (AVAV) – a supplier of UAS, tactical missiles, and defense services – hit 5-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to a -23%. The company market cap has crashed by about $4.5 Bil over the last 5 days, and currently stands at $15 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 25.1% compared to 1.5% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity, or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] U.S. Military Contract Stoppage and Delay
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- An unexpected work stoppage on a U.S. military project
- Could have large ramifications for 2026 revenue and profitability
- Impact: Stock crashed over 20% during the week, Forced re-evaluation of the stock by analysts
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are only a couple of things to fear in AVAV stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its Very High valuation, we think that the stock is Unattractive (For details, see Buy or Sell AVAV).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -23% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for AVAV stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | AVAV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -1.7% | 0.5% |
| 5D (Current Streak) | -23.0% | 0.1% |
| 1M (21D) | 15.9% | 0.6% |
| 3M (63D) | -16.9% | 3.1% |
| YTD 2026 | 25.1% | 1.5% |
| 2025 | 57.2% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 22.1% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 47.1% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: AVAV Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 65 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 42 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 17 | 37 |
| 4D | 35 | 0 |
| 5D | 9 | 4 |
| 6D | 3 | 0 |
| 7D or more | 1 | 1 |
| Total >=3 D | 65 | 42 |
Key Financials for AeroVironment (AVAV)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $716.7 Mil | $820.6 Mil |
| Operating Income | $71.8 Mil | $59.2 Mil |
| Net Income | $59.7 Mil | $43.6 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2026 FQ1 | 2026 FQ2 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $454.7 Mil | $472.5 Mil |
| Operating Income | $-69.3 Mil | $-30.2 Mil |
| Net Income | $-67.4 Mil | $-17.1 Mil |
The losing streak AVAV stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.