AU Up 27% in One Month, Time To Buy The Stock?

We believe there is not much to fear in AU stock given its overall Very Strong operating performance and financial condition. This isn’t appropriately reflected in the stock’s Moderate valuation which is why we think it is Attractive. Here is our multi-factor assessment.

But no matter how attractive, investing in a single stock carries high risk. Trefis High Quality Portfolio and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure

Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $35 Bil in market cap, Anglogold Ashanti provides gold mining and exploration services across Africa, the Americas, and Australia, operating multiple projects and mines, with additional interests in silver and sulphuric acid production.

[1] Valuation Looks Moderate

This table highlights how AU is valued vs broader market.

[2] Growth Is Very Strong

• Anglogold Ashanti has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 26.4% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 55% from $4.9 Bil to $7.6 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 77.0% to $2.4 Bil in the most recent quarter from $1.4 Bil a year ago.

This table highlights how AU is growing vs broader market. For more details see: AU Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Very Strong

• AU last 12 month operating income was $2.8 Bil representing operating margin of 36.5%
• With cash flow margin of 39.7%, it generated nearly $3.0 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, AU generated nearly $1.8 Bil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 23.6%

This table highlights how AU profitability vs broader market. For more details see: AU Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Very Strong

• AU Debt was $2.3 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $35 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 6.5%
• AU Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $2.0 Bil of $14 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 14.2%

[4] Downturn Resilience Is Weak

AU has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• AU stock fell 42.6% from a high of $25.73 on 19 May 2021 to $14.78 on 17 September 2021 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 20 May 2024
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $69.42 on 23 September 2025 $69.42

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• AU stock fell 45.2% from a high of $37.91 on 27 July 2020 to $20.77 on 24 November 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 10 April 2025

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• AU stock fell 72.8% from a high of $50.42 on 10 January 2008 to $13.71 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 10 November 2010

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read AU Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.