ASTS Lost 24% In A Month. Do You Buy Or Wait?
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) stock is down 23.7% in 21 trading days. While history suggests price dips recover, there is risk – specific to profitability and downturn resilience. Consider the following data:
- Size: A $11 Bil company with $4.9 Mil in revenue currently trading at $44.98.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 249.4% and operating margin of -5315.4%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.0 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.5
- Valuation: Currently trading at P/E multiple of -30.8 and P/EBIT multiple of -18.9
- Has returned (median) 36.5% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See ASTS Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for ASTS, see Buy or Sell ASTS Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and ASTS drops another 20-30% to $31.49 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience.
Below is a deep dive into AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) downturn resilience – specifically, its performance vs the market during past crises? Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
Below are the details, but before that, as a quick background: ASTS provides space-based cellular broadband, delivering mobile broadband services for users in areas without terrestrial coverage on land, sea, or in flight.
2022 Inflation Shock
- ASTS stock fell 68.5% from a high of $22.50 on 9 February 2021 to $7.08 on 1 June 2021 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 15 August 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $60.06 on 24 July 2025 , and currently trades at $44.98
| ASTS | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -68.5% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1171 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- ASTS stock fell 68.5% from a high of $22.50 on 9 February 2021 to $7.08 on 1 June 2021 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 15 August 2024
| ASTS | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -68.5% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1171 days | 148 days |
Worried that ASTS could fall much more? You could take a look at the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.