ARWR Stock Has Fallen 21%, Is It Time To Get In?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals stock has fallen by 20.8% in less than a month, from levels of $18.88 on 7/9/2025 to $14.96 now. Should you buy this dip? Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, while Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals passes basic quality checks, it has returned a disappointing (median) -16% in one year, and 38% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically.
That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
- Illinois Tool Stock’s Loudest Signal Is The One It Stopped Sending
- Lumentum Stock Was Already Sold Out Before Its Big Rally
- SanDisk Stock Is Trading Like The Memory Cycle Is Dead
- The Quiet Surge In Arista Networks Stock Masks A Volatile Outlook
- The Real Risk Inside Home Depot Stock
- How Hewlett Packard Built A Fortress Out Of Its Backlog
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 5.6% |
| 3M | 24.7% |
| 6M | -3.6% |
| 12M | -16.2% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
ARWR had 10 events since 1/1/2020 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 38% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 92.5 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -41% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | ARWR Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | ARWR | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -16% | 38% | -41% | 92 | ||||
| 3312025 | -36% | -8% | 17% | 48% | -22% | 100 | ||
| 1142025 | -31% | -2% | -17% | 19% | -45% | 9 | ||
| 4152024 | -33% | -1% | -53% | 23% | -58% | 92 | ||
| 3162023 | -31% | -4% | 15% | 69% | -13% | 50 | ||
| 9222022 | -33% | -11% | -15% | 31% | -25% | 225 | ||
| 5112022 | -38% | -15% | 36% | 67% | -18% | 96 | ||
| 1212022 | -31% | -6% | -33% | 8% | -45% | 11 | ||
| 8092021 | -30% | 4% | -28% | 31% | -56% | 91 | ||
| 3242021 | -30% | -0% | -27% | 44% | -37% | 93 | ||
| 1232020 | -32% | 6% | 78% | 85% | -56% | 335 | ||
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 1,437.0% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 451.2% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 11.2% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | -1.4 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 17.4 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.