How Will Aramark Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

November 14th, 2025 by Trefis Team
ARMK: Aramark logo
ARMK
Aramark

Aramark (NYSE:ARMK) is set to report its earnings on Monday, November 17, 2025. The company has $10 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $18 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $793 Mil in operating profits and net income of $362 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.

There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach. Should you buy one stock you like or build a portfolio designed to win across cycles? Our numbers show that the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has turned stock-picking uncertainty into market-beating consistency. This portfolio is incorporated in the asset allocation strategy of Empirical Asset Management — a Boston area wealth manager and Trefis partner — whose asset allocation framework yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%.

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Aramark’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

  • There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
  • However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
  • Median of the 9 positive returns = 2.6%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -2.1%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

  Forward Returns
Earnings Date 1D Returns 5D Returns 21D Returns
8/5/2025 -8.2% -9.0% -9.4%
5/6/2025 10.1% 13.6% 18.2%
2/4/2025 -2.1% -2.0% -6.5%
11/12/2024 -1.7% -3.7% 5.6%
8/6/2024 0.5% 5.9% 9.5%
5/7/2024 -2.8% 5.6% 1.1%
2/6/2024 -0.4% 5.4% 6.0%
11/14/2023 -8.2% -2.3% -4.5%
8/8/2023 7.4% 0.4% -1.7%
5/9/2023 4.8% 10.5% 20.1%
2/7/2023 -6.8% -11.0% -14.0%
11/15/2022 4.3% 3.2% 10.1%
8/9/2022 2.5% 5.8% 3.5%
5/10/2022 1.0% -1.9% 1.0%
2/8/2022 2.6% -1.6% -4.3%
11/16/2021 0.7% -4.4% -9.6%
8/10/2021 -1.9% -1.2% -2.5%
5/11/2021 -1.9% 2.7% -0.8%
2/9/2021 -2.6% 0.2% 12.2%
11/17/2020 -1.1% 2.0% 6.7%
SUMMARY STATS      
# Positive 9 11 11
# Negative 11 9 9
Median Positive 2.6% 5.4% 6.7%
Median Negative -2.1% -2.3% -4.5%
Max Positive 10.1% 13.6% 20.1%
Max Negative -8.2% -11.0% -14.0%

Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

History 1D_5D Returns 1D_21D Returns 5D_21D Returns
5Y History -9.1% 3.8% 65.8%
3Y History -7.3% 18.9% 77.6%

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Aramark stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Aramark. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

  1D Return Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return
ARMK Earnings Dates ARMK SYY UNF GPC
8/5/2025 -8.2% 1.1% N/A* -0.6%
5/6/2025 10.1% -0.3% N/A* N/A*
2/4/2025 -2.1% -1.2% N/A* N/A*
11/12/2024 -1.7% 4.2% 8.8% 8.5%
8/6/2024 0.5% -1.6% N/A* 2.1%
5/7/2024 -2.8% 2.0% N/A* N/A*
2/6/2024 -0.4% -0.5% N/A* N/A*
11/14/2023 -8.2% 3.7% 4.7% 6.3%
8/8/2023 7.4% -4.0% N/A* 0.1%
5/9/2023 4.8% 0.2% N/A* N/A*
2/7/2023 -6.8% -0.3% N/A* N/A*
11/15/2022 4.3% -0.8% 10.8% 14.9%
8/9/2022 2.5% N/A* N/A* 3.9%
11/16/2021 0.7% -3.9% -1.4% 1.7%
8/10/2021 -1.9% N/A* N/A* -1.3%
5/11/2021 -1.9% 1.0% N/A* N/A*
2/9/2021 -2.6% 4.4% N/A* N/A*
CORRELATION   -4.9% -59.1% 7.9%

   * N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after ARMK

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